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Tsugami Corp (TSGMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tsugami Corp $105, price $66.00, upside +59.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ADR · ISIN US8985362065

TC Tsugami Corp logo Some data Sep 27, 2026

Tsugami Corp

TSGMY · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $104.96 · Strongly undervalued (+59.0%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −33.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/9)
✓Wide moat 78/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$99.98 $66.00 Fair Value $104.96 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $66.00 – $99.98 · fair‑value band $88.90 – $125.06 · the $66.00 price screens below the $104.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Tsugami Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells precision machine tools in Japan. The company offers CNC precision automatic lathes, including independent opposed gang tool post, gang-tool post and turret, precision gang tool post, and vertical gang tool post; and CNC lathes.

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Tsugami Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells precision machine tools in Japan. The company offers CNC precision automatic lathes, including independent opposed gang tool post, gang-tool post and turret, precision gang tool post, and vertical gang tool post; and CNC lathes. It also offers turning center products, including bar and chuck work; machining center products comprising vertical and horizontal machining centers; precision grinding machines, such as CNC precision cylindrical, small and carbide grinding machines; and precision thread and rolling machines. In addition, the company inspects and maintains buildings and facilities of factories; repair services; and operates as a non-life insurance agency, as well as undertakes various business activities, such as research on individual companies and other services. The company serves various industries, including electronics, information and telecommunications, and automotive industries. It also operates in China, Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, India, the United States, Switzerland, Germany, France, Italy, and Mexico. The company was formerly known as Tsugami Mfg., Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Tsugami Corporation in November 1970. Tsugami Corporation was incorporated in 1937 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Tsugami Corp ADR (TSGMY) currently trades at $66.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $104.96, implying the stock looks roughly 37.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $144.44 per share, and 19 of the 19 models we run sit above the $66.00 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $75.56, and 0 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $88.90 (bear) to $125.06 (bull), the price of $66.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tsugami Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥27.2B in FY2025 versus ¥61.7B in FY2021, a compound −18.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.6B in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $307M · P/E ratio 18.0 · P/S ratio 4.40 · EPS (TTM) $3.66 · Net margin 24.4% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2% · Operating margin 24.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 59%, TSGMY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $88.90 Fair Value $104.96 Bull $125.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.66 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $114.22 $137.38 $176.24 77
Growth DCF $116.68 $138.64 $172.66 74
Owner Earnings $114.26 $137.44 $176.32 72
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $114.22 $137.38 $176.24 77
Owner Earnings $114.26 $137.44 $176.32 72
5Y Revenue Exit $95.58 $115.46 $144.23 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $85.11 $97.35 $113.61 71
5Y P/E Exit $140.27 $192.74 $255.34 66
10Y Revenue Exit $102.36 $116.90 $131.87 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $97.58 $106.67 $115.47 64
10Y P/E Exit $128.19 $160.53 $191.38 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $61.82 $75.56 $85.01 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $143.19 $190.92 $238.65 63
P/S Multiple $55.85 $74.47 $93.09 58
P/B Multiple $115.92 $154.55 $193.19 55
EV/EBITDA $66.43 $75.93 $85.43 64
EV/Revenue $84.85 $104.96 $125.07 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $57.54 $77.10 $115.08 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $116.68 $138.64 $172.66 74
Rev-Margin DCF $95.58 $117.47 $144.96 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $91.63 $97.00 $105.54 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $101.11 $144.44 $187.78 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−67.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 0%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.1% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 120 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside +59.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 25.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7.6% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.0× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)38 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Techtronic Industries Company 0669 HK$127.00 HK$139.70 +10%
Snap-on Incorporated SNA $369.20 $351.91 −5%
RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC $506.10 $381.54 −25%
Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO $271.70 $158.64 −42%
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc SWK $91.40 $62.27 −32%
The Toro Company TTC $97.15 $70.12 −28%
The Timken Company TKR $117.45 $70.64 −40%
SFS Group SFSN CHF 135.80 CHF 118.30 −13%
Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 ¥27.28 ¥30.38 +11%
Hiwin Technologies Corporation 2049 325.50 TWD 73.32 TWD −77%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tsugami Corp ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSGMY

Frequently asked questions

Is Tsugami Corp (TSGMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $104.96 versus a price of $66.00, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSGMY?
Our model-based fair value for Tsugami Corp ADR is $104.96 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.00.
What is the quality score of TSGMY?
Tsugami Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $104.96 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $88.90, optimistic scenario $125.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tsugami Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $104.96, about +59% upside versus a price of $66.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $88.90, optimistic scenario $125.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tsugami Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +41.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -18.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSGMY use?
Our models discount Tsugami Corp ADR at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tsugami Corp ADR that is +41.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tsugami Corp (TSGMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Tsugami Corp ADR grew -18.5 % a year. The price currently implies +41.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tsugami Corp ADR (+41.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.37 %: that much free cash flow Tsugami Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tsugami Corp ADR it is $104.96 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $66.00. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tsugami Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TSGMY trades below its calculated fair value: price $66.00, fair value $104.96, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSGMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($104.96). For Tsugami Corp ADR the two are $38.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tsugami Corp ADR worth?
The market values Tsugami Corp ADR at about $307M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $66.00; our models calculate a fair value of $104.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSGMY?
Our models span a range for Tsugami Corp ADR: cautious scenario $88.90, base $104.96, optimistic $125.06 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $66.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSGMY?
Tsugami Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $104.96 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tsugami Corp ADR (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 25.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSGMY from its 52-week high?
Tsugami Corp ADR trades at $66.00, at its 52-week high of $66.00 and at the low of $66.00 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $104.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tsugami Corp ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Techtronic Industries Company, Snap-on Incorporated, RBC Bearings Incorporated, Lincoln Electric Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tsugami Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $66.00, calculated fair value $104.96 (+59%), Quality Score 59/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSGMY calculated?
We run Tsugami Corp ADR through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $104.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tsugami Corp ADR currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $66.00. Our model-based fair value is $104.96, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tsugami Corp ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($88.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Tsugami Corp ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The market capitalisation of Tsugami Corp ADR is $307M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tsugami Corp ADR is 4.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
Earnings per share at Tsugami Corp ADR are $3.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The net margin of Tsugami Corp ADR is 24.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tsugami Corp ADR is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tsugami Corp ADR is 11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
The operating margin of Tsugami Corp ADR is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
Revenue at Tsugami Corp ADR is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tsugami Corp (TSGMY)?
Earnings per share at Tsugami Corp ADR are growing +56.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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