Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited $9.36, price $5.18, upside +80.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.77 – $9.32 · fair‑value band $6.15 – $12.16 · the $5.18 price screens below the $9.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.
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Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Regions; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, Hans Beer, Tsingtao Beer Museum, TSINGTAO 1903 Pubs, and Tsingtao Prince brand names. It also provides wealth management, agency collection, real estate, software and IT, and payment services, as well as technology promotion and application services. In addition, the company is involved in industrial engineering; technology promotion and application; and industrial investment activities. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) currently trades at $5.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.36, implying the stock looks roughly 44.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.36 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.25, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.15 (bear) to $12.16 (bull), the price of $5.18 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited reported revenue of 29.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.1B · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.5100 · Net margin 15.1% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin 22.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 81%, TSGTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.15Fair Value $9.36Bull $12.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3856 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.0% vs 10.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 17%
2025 sits 82% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Compare Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+27.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.8% · Above median
Return on assets6.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)22.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSGTF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.36 versus a price of $5.18, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSGTF?
Our model-based fair value for Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is $9.36 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.18.
What is the quality score of TSGTF?
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.36 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.15, optimistic scenario $12.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.36, about +81% upside versus a price of $5.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.15, optimistic scenario $12.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 32.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSGTF use?
Our models discount Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited that is -5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies -5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (-5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.96 %: that much free cash flow Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited it is $9.36 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $5.18. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TSGTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.18, fair value $9.36, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSGTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.36). For Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited the two are $4.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited worth?
The market values Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited at about $9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $5.18; our models calculate a fair value of $9.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSGTF?
Our models span a range for Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited: cautious scenario $6.15, base $9.36, optimistic $12.16 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $5.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSGTF?
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.4, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TSGTF?
The PEG ratio of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is 6.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 14.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSGTF from its 52-week high?
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited trades at $5.18, about 27% below its 52-week high of $7.14 and 14% above the low of $4.55 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $5.18, calculated fair value $9.36 (+81%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSGTF calculated?
We run Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.18. Our model-based fair value is $9.36, about +81% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.15 to $12.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited grew +6.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.9 %, EBIT margin +10.7 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The market capitalisation of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is $9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Earnings per share at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited are $0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The net margin of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is 15.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
The operating margin of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Revenue at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF)?
Earnings per share at Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited are growing +5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (TSGTF) hold?
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited holds more cash than debt, 12.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026