Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd $61.41, price $26.11, upside +135.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.62 – $26.11 · fair‑value band $37.57 – $80.39 · the $26.11 price screens below the $61.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various machines in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Molding Machinery, Machine Tools, and Control Systems.
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Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various machines in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Molding Machinery, Machine Tools, and Control Systems. The company offers injection molding machines, die-casting machines, extrusion machines, nano processing systems, machine tools, Board Type PLC, servo motors, industrial robots, and IoT+m products, as well as provides additive manufacturing systems and engineering solutions. It also provides high precision machine tools, micro pattern imprinting machines, high precision glass mold press machines, and electronic control system. In addition, the company provides machine tools that include double column type machining centers, horizontal boring machines, vertical lathes, and other machine tools. Furthur, it is involved in the castings, heat treatment, and machining work activities. The company was formerly known as Toshiba Machine Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. in April 2020. Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF) currently trades at $26.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.41, implying the stock looks roughly 57.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $62.19 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $26.11 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.46, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $37.57 (bear) to $80.39 (bull), the price of $26.11 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥168B in FY2025 versus ¥108B in FY2022, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥12.6B in FY2025, compounding +50.1%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $617M · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) $3.48 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at 135%, TSHMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $37.57Fair Value $61.41Bull $80.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+65.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+61.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
2025 sits 100% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 793 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−55.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toshiba Machine Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSHMF
Frequently asked questions
Is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.41 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $26.11, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSHMF?
Our model-based fair value for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is $61.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $26.11.
What is the quality score of TSHMF?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.57, optimistic scenario $80.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toshiba Machine Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.41, about +135% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $26.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $37.57, optimistic scenario $80.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥133B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Toshiba Machine Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toshiba Machine Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +16.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSHMF use?
Our models discount Toshiba Machine Co Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toshiba Machine Co Ltd that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd grew +16.0 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.54 %: that much free cash flow Toshiba Machine Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toshiba Machine Co Ltd it is $61.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $26.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TSHMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $26.11, fair value $61.41, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSHMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.41). For Toshiba Machine Co Ltd the two are $35.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd worth?
The market values Toshiba Machine Co Ltd at about $617M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $26.11; our models calculate a fair value of $61.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSHMF?
Our models span a range for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd: cautious scenario $37.57, base $61.41, optimistic $80.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $26.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSHMF?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $61.41 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSHMF from its 52-week high?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd trades at $26.11, at its 52-week high of $26.11 and 11% above the low of $23.42 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toshiba Machine Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $26.11, calculated fair value $61.41 (+135%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSHMF calculated?
We run Toshiba Machine Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Toshiba Machine Co Ltd currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $26.11. Our model-based fair value is $61.41, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toshiba Machine Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($37.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($37.57 to $80.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The market capitalisation of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is $617M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Earnings per share at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd are $3.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The dividend yield of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is 3.9% (payout 28.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The net margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is 4.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
The operating margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Revenue at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd is growing +14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMF)?
Earnings per share at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd are growing −95.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Sep 24, 2026