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Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tesoro Gold Ltd A$0.14, price A$0.90, upside -84.9%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000077208

TG Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Tesoro Gold Ltd

TSO · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.1360 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 20/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +846.4 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.89 A$0.2250 Fair Value A$0.1360 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2250 – A$2.89 · fair‑value band A$0.0850 – A$0.1615 · the A$0.9000 price screens above the A$0.1360 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Tesoro Gold Ltd engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of resource projects in Chile. The company primarily explores for gold deposits. It holds 95.4% interest in the El Zorro Gold project covering an area of approximately 570 square kilometers located in northern Chile.

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Tesoro Gold Ltd engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of resource projects in Chile. The company primarily explores for gold deposits. It holds 95.4% interest in the El Zorro Gold project covering an area of approximately 570 square kilometers located in northern Chile. The company was formerly known as Tesoro Resources Limited and changed its name to Tesoro Gold Limited in April 2022. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Fremantle, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO) currently trades at A$0.9000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1360, implying the stock looks roughly 561.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0850 (bear) to A$0.1615 (bull), the price of A$0.9000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Tesoro Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$165K in FY2025 versus A$2.3K in FY2021, a compound +190.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$5.0M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$179M (≈ $126M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Return on equity −7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.9% · Operating margin −1,014% · Revenue (TTM) A$320K · Revenue growth (YoY) −22.7% · Free cash flow −A$2.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −85%, TSO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0850 Fair Value A$0.1360 Bull A$0.1615
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2300 A$0.3100 A$0.4700 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2300 A$0.3100 A$0.4700 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 2
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+846.4%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4,048,933.3% (2020) → −1,159.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TSO screens 562% overvalued. Compare with Zijin Mining Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 237 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −23% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.50× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥31.41 ¥46.96 +50%
Newmont Corporation NEM A$177.02 A$265.78 +50%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $203.55 $223.91 +10%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $43.88 $65.40 +49%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $267.20 $293.92 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $153.81 $89.12 −42%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.60 $88.63 −15%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $28.70 $51.30 +79%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $258.29 $284.12 +10%
Lundin Gold Inc LUG C$95.46 C$127.96 +34%

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Tesoro Gold Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1360 −562%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tesoro Gold Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSO

Frequently asked questions

Is Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1360 versus a price of A$0.9000, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSO?
Our model-based fair value for Tesoro Gold Ltd is A$0.1360 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.9000.
What is the quality score of TSO?
Tesoro Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1360 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1615. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tesoro Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1360, about −85% upside versus a price of A$0.9000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1615. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
Tesoro Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$320K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tesoro Gold Ltd it is A$0.1360 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.9000. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tesoro Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TSO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.9000, fair value A$0.1360, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.9000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1360). For Tesoro Gold Ltd the two are A$0.7640 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tesoro Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Tesoro Gold Ltd at about A$179M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.9000; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1360 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSO?
Our models span a range for Tesoro Gold Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0850, base A$0.1360, optimistic A$0.1615 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.9000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tesoro Gold Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSO from its 52-week high?
Tesoro Gold Ltd trades at A$0.9000, about 37% below its 52-week high of A$1.44 and 161% above the low of A$0.3450 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1360 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tesoro Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tesoro Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.9000, calculated fair value A$0.1360 (−85%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSO calculated?
We run Tesoro Gold Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1360, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tesoro Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.9000. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1360, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tesoro Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1615). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0850 to A$0.1615) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tesoro Gold Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
The market capitalisation of Tesoro Gold Ltd is A$179M (≈ $126M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
Earnings per share at Tesoro Gold Ltd are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tesoro Gold Ltd is −7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tesoro Gold Ltd is −5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
The operating margin of Tesoro Gold Ltd is −1,014% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)?
Revenue at Tesoro Gold Ltd is growing −22.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +485%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO) generate?
The free cash flow of Tesoro Gold Ltd is −A$2.9M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO) hold?
Tesoro Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$22.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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