Tile Shop Holdings (TTSH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $119M
Tile Shop Holdings
TTSH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +3.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.65 – $8.01 · fair‑value band $1.10 – $1.47 · the $2.95 price screens above the $1.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Tile Shop Holdings (TTSH) currently trades at $2.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.47, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tile Shop Holdings generated revenue of $337M at a net margin of -1.3%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.3%. Net debt stands at $150M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.10 (bear case) to $1.47 (bull case); at $2.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -21% fair-value upside, at -50%, TTSH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($2.69) versus DCF Models ($0.0600). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of man-made and natural stone tiles, vinyl tiles, setting and maintenance materials, and related accessories in the United States.
Full company description
Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of man-made and natural stone tiles, vinyl tiles, setting and maintenance materials, and related accessories in the United States. The company offers natural stone products, including marble, travertine, granite, quartz, sandstone, slate, and onyx tiles; and man-made products comprises ceramic, porcelain, glass, cement, wood look, and metal and luxury vinyl tile. It also manufactures setting and maintenance materials, such as thinset, grout, and sealers; and accessories, which include installation tools, shower and bath shelves, drains, and related products, as well as work with other suppliers to manufacture private label products. In addition, the company provides delivery service through third-party freight providers. It sells its products under the Superior Adhesives & Chemicals, Superior Tools & Supplies, Rush River, and Fired Earth brands. Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Plymouth, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tile Shop Holdings reported revenue of $337M in FY2025 versus $371M in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.5M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TTSH screens 50% overvalued. Compare with The Home Depot, Inc →
Peer Group
Home Improvement Retail · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Home Improvement Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Home Depot, Inc HD | $337.74 | $236.85 | -30% |
| Lowe's Companies, Inc LOW | $209.66 | $186.32 | -11% |
| Wesfarmers Limited WES | A$92.80 | A$50.50 | -46% |
| Floor & Decor Holdings FND | $56.40 | $32.81 | -42% |
| Mr D.I.Y. Group 5296 | 1.70 MYR | 1.47 MYR | -14% |
| Home Product Center Public Company HMPROR | 6.65 THB | 6.31 THB | -5% |
| Siam Global House Public Company GLOBAL | 7.50 THB | 5.96 THB | -21% |
| Dohome Public Company DOHOME | 3.86 THB | 2.90 THB | -25% |
| Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT | $25.66 | $22.53 | -12% |
| Test-Rite International Co 2908 | 22.00 TWD | 9.18 TWD | -58% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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