Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS TRY 244, price TRY 377, upside -35.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the procurement and refining of crude oil, petroleum, and chemical products in Turkey and internationally. It operates through Refining and Electricity segments.
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Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the procurement and refining of crude oil, petroleum, and chemical products in Turkey and internationally. It operates through Refining and Electricity segments. The company is involved in purchasing, selling, importing, exporting, storing, and marketing petroleum products, liquid petroleum gas, and natural gas. Its products include liquid petroleum gases, fuel oils, gasoline, diesel, base oils, waxes, extracts, and bitumen and bitumen binders, as well as, white spirits, clarified oils, petroleum coke, and sulphur products. The company also engages in the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products; operation of factories and facilities in petrochemical and related industries; trading of crude oil and petroleum products; electricity and steam production and trade; air, sea, land, and rail transportation; mooring and tug services; ship chartering and freight trading activities; electric vehicle charging stations; real estate; and technology and venture investments. Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS) currently trades at 377.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 244.26 TRY, 35.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 502.15 TRY per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the 377.00 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 126.61 TRY, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 181.32 TRY (bear) to 307.21 TRY (bull), the price of 377.00 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS reported revenue of 830B TRL in FY2025 versus 151B TRL in FY2021, a compound +53.1%/yr. Reported net income was 29.5B TRL in FY2025, compounding +72.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 726B TRY (≈ $14.8B) · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) 35.02 TRY · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 128% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −35%, TUPRS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 181.32 TRYFair Value 244.26 TRYBull 307.21 TRY
Price 377.00 TRY · Upside -35.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (13.58 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+91.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.9%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price and −11.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−35.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.6% · Above median
Return on assets8.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth59.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.71× · Pricier than median
P/FCF23.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.61× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)70· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)91· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TUPRS
Frequently asked questions
Is Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 244.26 TRY versus a price of 377.00 TRY, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TUPRS?
Our model-based fair value for Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 244.26 TRY (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 377.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of TUPRS?
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 244.26 TRY (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 181.32 TRY, optimistic scenario 307.21 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 244.26 TRY, about −35% upside versus a price of 377.00 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 181.32 TRY, optimistic scenario 307.21 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0T TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS pay a dividend?
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS would have to grow free cash flow by +17.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +67.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TUPRS use?
Our models discount Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS that is +17.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS grew +67.4 % a year. The price currently implies +17.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (+17.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.18 %: that much free cash flow Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS it is 244.26 TRY per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 377.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TUPRS trades above its calculated fair value: price 377.00 TRY, fair value 244.26 TRY, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TUPRS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (377.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (244.26 TRY). For Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS the two are 132.74 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS worth?
The market values Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS at about 726B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 377.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 244.26 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TUPRS?
Our models span a range for Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS: cautious scenario 181.32 TRY, base 244.26 TRY, optimistic 307.21 TRY per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 377.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TUPRS?
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 244.26 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TUPRS?
The PEG ratio of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TUPRS from its 52-week high?
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS trades at 377.00 TRY, about 10% below its 52-week high of 417.25 TRY and 128% above the low of 165.70 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 244.26 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 377.00 TRY, calculated fair value 244.26 TRY (−35%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TUPRS calculated?
We run Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 244.26 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 377.00 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 244.26 TRY, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (307.21 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The market capitalisation of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 726B TRY (≈ $14.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 0.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Earnings per share at Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS are 35.02 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The dividend yield of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 4.5% (payout 48.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The net margin of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 19.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
The operating margin of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Revenue at Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is growing +59.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS)?
Earnings per share at Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS are growing +291% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS) carry?
The net debt of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is 14.5B TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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