TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of TVD Holdings PCL THB 0.10, price THB 0.04, upside +140.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0300 THB – 1.96 THB · fair‑value band 0.0800 THB – 0.0960 THB · the 0.0400 THB price screens below the 0.0960 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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TVD Holdings Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, sells goods and services through various marketing channels. The company operates through five segments: Sales, Provides Secured Loans, Investment, Media, and Services. It also produces and sells TV programs, and air time for advertising.
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TVD Holdings Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, sells goods and services through various marketing channels. The company operates through five segments: Sales, Provides Secured Loans, Investment, Media, and Services. It also produces and sells TV programs, and air time for advertising. In addition, the company engages in satellite signal rental; investing in fiber optic distribution system projects; and training services. The company was formerly known as TV Direct Public Company Limited and changed its name to TVD Holdings Public Company Limited in July 2022. TVD Holdings Public Company Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH) currently trades at 0.0400 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0960 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 0.2000 THB per share, and 16 of the 16 models we run sit above the 0.0400 THB price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.0600 THB, and 0 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.0800 THB (bear) to 0.0960 THB (bull), the price of 0.0400 THB sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
TVD Holdings PCL reported revenue of 912M THB in FY2025 versus 2.7B THB in FY2021, a compound −24.0%/yr. Reported net income was 17.8M THB in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 114M THB (≈ $3.4M) · P/E ratio 1.3 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) 0.0300 THB · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.4% · Operating margin 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 140%, TVDH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.0800 THBFair Value 0.0960 THBBull 0.0960 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0220 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−32.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−24.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24% vs −8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → −25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.0%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+140% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets−10% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−56% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0960 THB versus a price of 0.0400 THB, about +140% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TVDH?
Our model-based fair value for TVD Holdings PCL is 0.0960 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.0400 THB.
What is the quality score of TVDH?
TVD Holdings PCL has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0960 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.0800 THB, optimistic scenario 0.0960 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TVD Holdings PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0960 THB, about +140% upside versus a price of 0.0400 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 0.0800 THB, optimistic scenario 0.0960 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
TVD Holdings PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 759M THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TVD Holdings PCL would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -24.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TVDH use?
Our models discount TVD Holdings PCL at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TVD Holdings PCL that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TVD Holdings PCL grew -24.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TVD Holdings PCL (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.27 %: that much free cash flow TVD Holdings PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TVD Holdings PCL it is 0.0960 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 0.0400 THB. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TVD Holdings PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TVDH trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.0400 THB, fair value 0.0960 THB, a gap of about +140% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TVDH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.0400 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0960 THB). For TVD Holdings PCL the two are 0.0560 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TVD Holdings PCL worth?
The market values TVD Holdings PCL at about 114M THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 0.0400 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0960 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TVDH?
Our models span a range for TVD Holdings PCL: cautious scenario 0.0800 THB, base 0.0960 THB, optimistic 0.0960 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 0.0400 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TVDH?
TVD Holdings PCL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.0960 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
Balance-sheet figures for TVD Holdings PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TVDH from its 52-week high?
TVD Holdings PCL trades at 0.0400 THB, about 60% below its 52-week high of 0.1000 THB and 33% above the low of 0.0300 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0960 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TVD Holdings PCL?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TVD Holdings PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 0.0400 THB, calculated fair value 0.0960 THB (+140%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TVDH calculated?
We run TVD Holdings PCL through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0960 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TVD Holdings PCL currently trades 140 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 0.0400 THB. Our model-based fair value is 0.0960 THB, about +140% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TVD Holdings PCL right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (0.0800 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of TVD Holdings PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The market capitalisation of TVD Holdings PCL is 114M THB (≈ $3.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TVD Holdings PCL is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
Earnings per share at TVD Holdings PCL are 0.0300 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The net margin of TVD Holdings PCL is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TVD Holdings PCL is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TVD Holdings PCL is −19.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
The operating margin of TVD Holdings PCL is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
Revenue at TVD Holdings PCL is growing −55.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH)?
Earnings per share at TVD Holdings PCL are growing +395% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TVD Holdings PCL (TVDH) carry?
The net debt of TVD Holdings PCL is 221M THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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