Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Twin Disc Incorporated $8.43, price $25.85, upside -67.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.16 – $25.93 · fair‑value band $5.95 – $11.84 · the $25.85 price screens above the $8.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Twin Disc, Incorporated engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of marine and heavy duty off-highway power transmission equipment in the United States, the Netherlands, China, Australia, Finland, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Manufacturing and Distribution.
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Twin Disc, Incorporated engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of marine and heavy duty off-highway power transmission equipment in the United States, the Netherlands, China, Australia, Finland, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Manufacturing and Distribution. It offers marine transmissions, azimuth drives, surface drives, propellers, and boat management systems, as well as power-shift transmissions, hydraulic torque converters, power take-offs, industrial clutches, and controls and braking systems. The company also provides third-party manufactured products. It sells its products through a direct sales force and distributor network to customers primarily in the pleasure craft, commercial marine, patrol, and military marine markets, as well as in the energy and natural resources, government, agriculture, recycling, construction, oil and gas, and industrial markets. The company was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) currently trades at $25.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.43, implying the stock looks roughly 206.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $10.80 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $25.85 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.25, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.95 (bear) to $11.84 (bull), the price of $25.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Twin Disc Incorporated reported revenue of $341M in FY2025 versus $219M in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $358M · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $1.86 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −67%, TWIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.95Fair Value $8.43Bull $11.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.70 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.3% (2020) → 2.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 828 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−67% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF40.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG3.16× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)95· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.43 versus a price of $25.85, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TWIN?
Our model-based fair value for Twin Disc Incorporated is $8.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.85.
What is the quality score of TWIN?
Twin Disc Incorporated has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.95, optimistic scenario $11.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Twin Disc Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.43, about −67% upside versus a price of $25.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.95, optimistic scenario $11.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Twin Disc Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $364M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Twin Disc Incorporated pay a dividend?
Twin Disc Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Twin Disc Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +25.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TWIN use?
Our models discount Twin Disc Incorporated at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Twin Disc Incorporated that is +25.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Twin Disc Incorporated grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +25.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Twin Disc Incorporated (+25.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.46 %: that much free cash flow Twin Disc Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Twin Disc Incorporated it is $8.43 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $25.85. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Twin Disc Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TWIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.85, fair value $8.43, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.43). For Twin Disc Incorporated the two are $17.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Twin Disc Incorporated worth?
The market values Twin Disc Incorporated at about $358M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $25.85; our models calculate a fair value of $8.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWIN?
Our models span a range for Twin Disc Incorporated: cautious scenario $5.95, base $8.43, optimistic $11.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $25.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TWIN?
Twin Disc Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TWIN?
The PEG ratio of Twin Disc Incorporated is 3.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Twin Disc Incorporated (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWIN from its 52-week high?
Twin Disc Incorporated trades at $25.85, at its 52-week high of $25.93 and 94% above the low of $13.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Twin Disc Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Twin Disc Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $25.85, calculated fair value $8.43 (−67%), Quality Score 48/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWIN calculated?
We run Twin Disc Incorporated through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Twin Disc Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $25.85. Our model-based fair value is $8.43, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Twin Disc Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.95 to $11.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Twin Disc Incorporated grew +1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.4 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Twin Disc Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The market capitalisation of Twin Disc Incorporated is $358M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Twin Disc Incorporated is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Earnings per share at Twin Disc Incorporated are $1.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The dividend yield of Twin Disc Incorporated is 0.6% (payout 8.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The net margin of Twin Disc Incorporated is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Twin Disc Incorporated is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Twin Disc Incorporated is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The operating margin of Twin Disc Incorporated is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Revenue at Twin Disc Incorporated is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Earnings per share at Twin Disc Incorporated are growing +22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) carry?
The net debt of Twin Disc Incorporated is $33.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026