Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $323M
Twin Disc, Incorporated
TWIN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +13.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.96 to $11.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.16 – $24.19 · fair‑value band $4.96 – $11.44 · the $24.14 price screens above the $7.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) currently trades at $24.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.87, implying the stock looks roughly 67.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Twin Disc, Incorporated generated revenue of $364M at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.1%. Net debt stands at $33.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.96 (bear case) to $11.44 (bull case); at $24.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 204% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -67%, TWIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($10.80) versus Earnings-Based ($3.25). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Twin Disc, Incorporated engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of marine and heavy duty off-highway power transmission equipment in the United States, the Netherlands, China, Australia, Finland, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Manufacturing and Distribution.
Full company description
Twin Disc, Incorporated engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of marine and heavy duty off-highway power transmission equipment in the United States, the Netherlands, China, Australia, Finland, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Manufacturing and Distribution. It offers marine transmissions, azimuth drives, surface drives, propellers, and boat management systems, as well as power-shift transmissions, hydraulic torque converters, power take-offs, industrial clutches, and controls and braking systems. The company also provides third-party manufactured products. It sells its products through a direct sales force and distributor network to customers primarily in the pleasure craft, commercial marine, patrol, and military marine markets, as well as in the energy and natural resources, government, agriculture, recycling, construction, oil and gas, and industrial markets. The company was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Twin Disc, Incorporated reported revenue of $341M in FY2025 versus $219M in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.9M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +0.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TWIN screens 67% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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