Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Twin Disc Incorporated stock $18.57, price $22.85, that is 18.7% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.15 – $28.72 · fair‑value band $11.22 – $27.94 · the $22.85 price screens above the $18.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Twin Disc, Incorporated engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of marine and heavy duty off-highway power transmission equipment in the United States, the Netherlands, China, Australia, Finland, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Manufacturing and Distribution.
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It offers marine transmissions, azimuth drives, surface drives, propellers, and boat management systems, as well as power-shift transmissions, hydraulic torque converters, power take-offs, industrial clutches, and controls and braking systems.
The company also provides third-party manufactured products.
It sells its products through a direct sales force and distributor network to customers primarily in the pleasure craft, commercial marine, patrol, and military marine markets, as well as in the energy and natural resources, government, agriculture, recycling, construction, oil and gas, and industrial markets.
The company was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) currently trades at $22.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.57, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $32.57 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the $22.85 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.24, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.22 (bear) to $27.94 (bull), the price of $22.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Twin Disc Incorporated reported revenue of $381M in FY2026 versus $243M in FY2022, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $27.1M in FY2026, compounding +26.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $333M Small · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $2.12 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −19%, TWIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.22Fair Value $18.57Bull$27.94
Price $22.85 · Downside -18.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7052 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $417,606 and none bought.
SaleJeffrey Scott KnutsonVP Finance, CFO, Secr & Trea2× since Sep 3, 2026: 17,686 shares, avg. $23.61$417,606Sep 8, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.9% vs 6.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 5%
2026 sits 141% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.0% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 813 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−18.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.52× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.86× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)36.3× · Pricier than median
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Is Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.57 versus a price of $22.85, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TWIN?
Our model-based fair value for Twin Disc Incorporated is $18.57 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.85.
What is the quality score of TWIN?
Twin Disc Incorporated has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.57 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.22, optimistic scenario $27.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Twin Disc Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.57, about 19% lower versus a price of $22.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.22, optimistic scenario $27.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Twin Disc Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $390M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Twin Disc Incorporated pay a dividend?
Twin Disc Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 0.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Twin Disc Incorporated pays a dividend of $0.17 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 18, 2026. The payout ratio is 8.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.72 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Twin Disc Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +21.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TWIN use?
Our models discount Twin Disc Incorporated at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Twin Disc Incorporated that is +21.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Twin Disc Incorporated grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Twin Disc Incorporated (+21.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.76 %: that much free cash flow Twin Disc Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Twin Disc Incorporated it is $18.57 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $22.85. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Twin Disc Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TWIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.85, fair value $18.57, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.57). For Twin Disc Incorporated the two are $4.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Twin Disc Incorporated worth?
The market values Twin Disc Incorporated at about $333M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $22.85; our models calculate a fair value of $18.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWIN?
Our models span a range for Twin Disc Incorporated: cautious scenario $11.22, base $18.57, optimistic $27.94 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $22.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TWIN?
Twin Disc Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.57 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 14.9. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TWIN?
The PEG ratio of Twin Disc Incorporated is 3.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Twin Disc Incorporated (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWIN from its 52-week high?
Twin Disc Incorporated trades at $22.85, about 20% below its 52-week high of $28.72 and 59% above the low of $14.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Twin Disc Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Twin Disc Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $22.85, calculated fair value $18.57 (−19%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWIN calculated?
We run Twin Disc Incorporated through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Twin Disc Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $22.85. Our model-based fair value is $18.57, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Twin Disc Incorporated right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($11.22 to $27.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Twin Disc Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The market capitalisation of Twin Disc Incorporated is $333M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Twin Disc Incorporated is 0.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Earnings per share at Twin Disc Incorporated are $2.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The dividend yield of Twin Disc Incorporated is 0.7% (payout 8.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The net margin of Twin Disc Incorporated is 8.0% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2026 4.2%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Twin Disc Incorporated is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Twin Disc Incorporated is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
The operating margin of Twin Disc Incorporated is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Revenue at Twin Disc Incorporated is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN)?
Earnings per share at Twin Disc Incorporated are growing −29.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) carry?
The net debt of Twin Disc Incorporated is $29.0M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026