Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Toscana Aeroporti SpA €9.52, price €18.15, upside -47.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.27 – €20.00 · fair‑value band €5.78 – €16.46 · the €18.15 price screens above the €9.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. operates and manages Florence and Pisa airports in Italy. The company operates through Aviation Business and Non-Aviation Business segments.
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Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. operates and manages Florence and Pisa airports in Italy. The company operates through Aviation Business and Non-Aviation Business segments. The Aviation Business segment includes activities that take place in the airside area with security checkpoints and airport activity; offers ground assistance activities for passengers and aircraft, such as handling, landing, departure, and parking of aircraft, security, and safety activities; passenger embarkation and disembarkation; and cargo embarkation and disembarkation services. The Non-Aviation Business segments provides landside area for security checkpoints; retail activities, catering, parking, car rentals, advertising, ticketing, and VIP lounge; royalties on sub-concession activities; and direct management of activities, such as parking, ticketing, and advertising; and leases payments of sub-concessionaires. The company was formerly known as Società Aeroporto Toscano (S.A.T.) Galileo Galilei S.p.A. and changed its name to Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. in June 2015. Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Florence, Italy. Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Corporaciòn America Italia S.p.A.
Stock analysis
Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) currently trades at €18.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.52, implying the stock looks roughly 90.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €16.60 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the €18.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.43, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.78 (bear) to €16.46 (bull), the price of €18.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Toscana Aeroporti SpA reported revenue of €150M in FY2025 versus €66.6M in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was €16.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €338M · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 2.35 · EPS (TTM) €0.8300 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −48%, TYA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.78Fair Value €9.52Bull €16.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6094 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−22% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−48% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.9× · Pricier than median
P/B3.12× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.76× · Pricier than median
P/FCF78.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)45· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.52 versus a price of €18.15, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TYA?
Our model-based fair value for Toscana Aeroporti SpA is €9.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €18.15.
What is the quality score of TYA?
Toscana Aeroporti SpA has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €9.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.78, optimistic scenario €16.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toscana Aeroporti SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €9.52, about −48% upside versus a price of €18.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.78, optimistic scenario €16.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Toscana Aeroporti SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €139M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Toscana Aeroporti SpA pay a dividend?
Toscana Aeroporti SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toscana Aeroporti SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +44.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TYA use?
Our models discount Toscana Aeroporti SpA at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toscana Aeroporti SpA that is +44.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toscana Aeroporti SpA grew +18.0 % a year. The price currently implies +44.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toscana Aeroporti SpA (+44.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.45 %: that much free cash flow Toscana Aeroporti SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toscana Aeroporti SpA it is €9.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €18.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toscana Aeroporti SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TYA trades above its calculated fair value: price €18.15, fair value €9.52, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TYA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€18.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€9.52). For Toscana Aeroporti SpA the two are €8.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toscana Aeroporti SpA worth?
The market values Toscana Aeroporti SpA at about €338M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €18.15; our models calculate a fair value of €9.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYA?
Our models span a range for Toscana Aeroporti SpA: cautious scenario €5.78, base €9.52, optimistic €16.46 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €18.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TYA?
Toscana Aeroporti SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €9.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toscana Aeroporti SpA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TYA from its 52-week high?
Toscana Aeroporti SpA trades at €18.15, about 9% below its 52-week high of €20.00 and 11% above the low of €16.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €9.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toscana Aeroporti SpA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A., GMR Airports Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toscana Aeroporti SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €18.15, calculated fair value €9.52 (−48%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TYA calculated?
We run Toscana Aeroporti SpA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €9.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Toscana Aeroporti SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €18.15. Our model-based fair value is €9.52, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toscana Aeroporti SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€16.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€5.78 to €16.46). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) come from?
Earnings per share at Toscana Aeroporti SpA grew +0.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toscana Aeroporti SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The market capitalisation of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is €338M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is 2.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Earnings per share at Toscana Aeroporti SpA are €0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The dividend yield of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is 2.1% (payout 47.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The net margin of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
The operating margin of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is 35.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Revenue at Toscana Aeroporti SpA is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA)?
Earnings per share at Toscana Aeroporti SpA are growing +12.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toscana Aeroporti SpA (TYA) carry?
The net debt of Toscana Aeroporti SpA is €67.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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