Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd $21.34, price $32.74, upside -34.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $32.22 – $155.55 · fair‑value band $12.54 – $33.50 · the $32.74 price screens above the $21.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells photosensitive materials and polymer products primarily in Japan.
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Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells photosensitive materials and polymer products primarily in Japan. The company offers negative photosensitive materials for use as a cross-linking agent for photo-curing resins; positive photosensitive materials for microfabrication of semiconductor integrated circuits and liquid crystal displays; chemically amplified photoacid generator for microfabrication of semiconductor integrated circuits; and acrylic polymer for resist. It also provides chemicals products, such as alcohols, aldehydes, acids, ketones, esters, ethers, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen compounds. In addition, the company offers logistic services, including ship receiving systems; shipping systems; chemical transport services; and storage equipment comprising fully automated dangerous goods 3d automatic warehouse, drum filling station, dangerous goods refilling equipment, blending equipment, temperature control system, analysis room, distillation purification and synthesis technologies, and deodorization tower. The company was formerly known as Nihon Acetylene Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd. in May 1961. Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) currently trades at $32.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.34, implying the stock looks roughly 53.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $23.31 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the $32.74 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.45, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.54 (bear) to $33.50 (bull), the price of $32.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd reported revenue of ¥42.2B in FY2026 versus ¥33.1B in FY2022, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.7B in FY2026, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $260M · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) $2.69 · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity −10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin −0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −35%, TYGIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.54Fair Value $21.34Bull $33.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.9% vs 19.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.5% a year for the price and +8.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 347 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.34 versus a price of $32.74, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TYGIF?
Our model-based fair value for Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is $21.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.74.
What is the quality score of TYGIF?
Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.54, optimistic scenario $33.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.34, about −35% upside versus a price of $32.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.54, optimistic scenario $33.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥14.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +17.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TYGIF use?
Our models discount Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd at 15.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.75, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd that is +17.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +17.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (+17.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.16 %: that much free cash flow Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd it is $21.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $32.74. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TYGIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.74, fair value $21.34, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TYGIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.34). For Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd the two are $11.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd worth?
The market values Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd at about $260M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $32.74; our models calculate a fair value of $21.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYGIF?
Our models span a range for Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd: cautious scenario $12.54, base $21.34, optimistic $33.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $32.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TYGIF?
Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.8%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TYGIF from its 52-week high?
Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd trades at $32.74, at its 52-week high of $32.74 and 2% above the low of $32.22 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $32.74, calculated fair value $21.34 (−35%), Quality Score 49/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TYGIF calculated?
We run Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $32.74. Our model-based fair value is $21.34, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($12.54 to $33.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) come from?
Earnings per share at Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd grew +23.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin +11.5 %, tax rate −3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The market capitalisation of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is $260M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
Earnings per share at Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd are $2.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The net margin of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is 6.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is −10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
The operating margin of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF)?
Revenue at Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd (TYGIF) carry?
The net debt of Toyo Gosei Co.Ltd is ¥6.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026