UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $10.8B
UMB Financial Corporation
UMBF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −0.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($127.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.34 – $148.33 · fair‑value band $76.62 – $127.70 · the $145.13 price screens above the $102.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) currently trades at $145.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $102.15, implying the stock looks roughly 29.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, UMB Financial Corporation generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 32.3%. Revenue grew 49.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.1%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $76.62 (bear case) to $127.70 (bull case); at $145.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -30%, UMBF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($236.76) versus Asset-Based ($67.84). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
UMB Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides banking services and asset servicing in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Banking, Institutional Banking, and Personal Banking.
Full company description
UMB Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides banking services and asset servicing in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Banking, Institutional Banking, and Personal Banking. The Commercial Banking segment provides commercial loans and credit cards; commercial real estate financing; letters of credit; loan syndication, and consultative services; various business solutions including asset-based lending, mezzanine debt, and minority equity investment; and treasury management service, such as depository service, account reconciliation, cash management tool, accounts payable and receivable solution, electronic fund transfer and automated payment, controlled disbursement, lockbox service, and remote deposit capture service. The Institutional Banking segment offers banking, fund, asset management, and healthcare services to institutional clients; fund administration and accounting, investor services and transfer agency, alternative investment services, fixed income sales, trading and underwriting, and corporate trust and escrow services, as well as institutional custody services. This segment also provides healthcare payment solutions, including custodial service for health saving accounts and private label, multipurpose debit cards to insurance carriers, third-party administrators, software companies, employers, and financial institutions. The Personal Banking segment offers deposit account, retail credit card, private banking, installment loan, home equity line of credit, residential mortgage, as well as internet banking, ATM network, private banking, brokerage and insurance service, and investment advisory, trust, and custody services. It operates through a network of branches and offices. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UMB Financial Corporation reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +37.5%/yr. Reported net income was $702M in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
UMBF screens 30% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- UMB Financial Corp (UMBF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Loan Production and 20. ...
- UMB Financial (UMBF) Earnings And Dividend Hike Put Valuation In Focus
- Does Stronger Earnings And A Higher Dividend Shift UMB Financial’s (UMBF) Capital Return Priorities?
- UMB Financial Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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