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Data-driven stock valuation

Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Sirius XM Holding Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Communication Services · US · Market cap $10.3B · ISIN US8299331004

At a glance

SX Sirius XM Holding Inc logo Sirius XM Holding Inc SIRI · US
Price$28.80
Fair Value$41.36
Upside+43.6%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, trading 30% below our fair value of $41.36.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Sirius XM Holding Inc is $41.36 per share against a price of $28.80, so the fair value sits 44% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·3.75% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
!Moderate moat 52/100
!Weak on future: 6 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $25.88 to $58.84

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −3.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($25.88 to $58.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$69.65 $18.21 Fair Value $41.36 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.21 – $69.65 · fair‑value band $25.88 – $58.84 · the $28.80 price screens below the $41.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI) currently trades at $28.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.36, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $63.96 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $28.80 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $14.86, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sirius XM Holding Inc generated revenue of $8.6B at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at $9.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $25.88 (bear) to $58.84 (bull), the price of $28.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at 44%, SIRI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8837 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $27.81 $29.24 $31.25 76
EPV $9.11 $14.86 $19.89 72
FCF DCF $30.93 $72.54 $186.22 71
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $30.93 $72.54 $186.22 71
Owner Earnings $7.04 $45.94 $125.39 65
5Y Revenue Exit $20.25 $59.73 $127.33 66
5Y EBITDA Exit $28.44 $77.80 $157.01 69
5Y P/E Exit $18.07 $58.69 $109.42 66
10Y Revenue Exit $21.70 $66.74 $128.34 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $28.99 $81.68 $174.56 62
10Y P/E Exit $21.77 $62.77 $129.70 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $16.26 $107.65 $150.74 63
Lynch FV $31.42 $44.89 $58.35 61
PEG = 1.0 $31.42 $44.89 $58.35 57
EPV $9.11 $14.86 $19.89 72
Multiples
P/E Multiple $39.46 $52.61 $65.76 63
P/S Multiple $30.49 $40.65 $50.82 58
P/B Multiple $30.49 $40.65 $50.82 55
EV/EBIT $27.03 $44.51 $61.99 64
EV/EBITDA $29.02 $47.17 $65.31 66
EV/Revenue $14.35 $31.40 $48.44 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.18 $23.01 $34.35 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $28.69 $83.50 $185.29 71
Rev-Margin DCF $20.25 $61.66 $122.15 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $27.81 $29.24 $31.25 76
ROIC Compounder $9.11 $14.86 $19.89 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $44.77 $63.96 $83.14 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($63.96) versus Economic Profit ($14.86). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.2
P/S ratio 1.15 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.36 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2
Dividend yield 3.8% payout 45.8%
Net margin 9.4% FY2025
Return on equity 7.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 22.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $8.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.1% 3y avg −1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +21.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.2B FY2025
Net debt $9.6B FY2025 · ≈ 7.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 62
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform.

Full company description

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news channels, as well as podcast and infotainment services on subscription fee basis; and live, curated, and exclusive and on demand programming services through satellite radio systems and streamed through applications for mobile and home devices, and other consumer electronic equipment. This segment also distributes satellite radios through automakers and retailers, as well as its website; offers advertising other ancillary services; sells radios and accessories; and offers location-based services through two-way wireless connectivity, including safety, security, convenience, maintenance and data, remote vehicles diagnostic, and stolen or parked vehicle locator services, as well as data services related to graphical weather and fuel prices. In addition, this segment provides music channels on the DISH Network satellite television service as a programming package; Travel Link, a suite of data services that include graphical weather, fuel prices, sports schedule and scores, and movie listings; graphic information related to road closings, traffic flow, and incident data for consumers with in-vehicle navigation systems; real-time weather services in vehicles, boats, and planes; music programming and commercial-free music services for office, restaurants, and other business; and wireless communications service. The Pandora and Off-platform segment operates music, comedy, and podcast streaming platform, which offers personalized experience for listener through mobile devices, vehicle speakers, and connected devices; and provides advertising services. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sirius XM Holding Inc reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $8.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $805M in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$8.6B
Latest YoY
−1.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (31Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+44.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+3.3%
Dividend yield3.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 2.6% vs 10Y 9.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10.7% (2020) → 17.2% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop113% (2024) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue −0.4%/yr
FY21 $8.7B
FY22 $9.0B
FY23 $9.0B
FY24 $8.7B
FY25 $8.6B
Net income −11.5%/yr
FY21 $1.3B
FY22 $1.2B
FY23 $1.3B
FY24 −$1.7B
FY25 $805M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.0 %

of which total revenue +7.4 % · buybacks/dilution +4.2 %

EBIT margin −3.6 %
Tax rate +2.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sirius XM Holding Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIRI

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Entertainment · 255 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +43% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.75× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.23× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 8.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.31× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Sirius XM Holding Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+3.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+1.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.9 %
FCF yield on price12.11 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.1 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE91 · sector 12
FUTURE6 · sector 15
PAST30 · sector 0
HEALTH63 · sector 98
DIVIDEND75 · sector 42

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Netflix, Inc NFLX $78.25 $49.35 −37%
The Walt Disney Company DIS $103.50 $80.62 −22%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD $28.12 $9.03 −68%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV $182.02 $59.97 −67%
Universal Music Group UMG €14.73 €14.78 +0%
TKO Group TKO $189.42 $47.75 −75%
Formula One Group FWONK $102.02 $35.21 −65%
Fox Corporation FOXA $65.42 $206.81 +216%
News Corporation NWS A$46.55 A$20.41 −56%
Warner Music Group WMG $24.79 $12.10 −51%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.36 versus a price of $28.80, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SIRI?
Our model-based fair value for Sirius XM Holding Inc is $41.36 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.80.
What is the quality score of SIRI?
Sirius XM Holding Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.36 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.88, optimistic scenario $58.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sirius XM Holding Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.36, about +44% upside versus a price of $28.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $25.88, optimistic scenario $58.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI)?
Sirius XM Holding Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SIRI?
The net profit margin of Sirius XM Holding Inc is about 9.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sirius XM Holding Inc pay a dividend?
Sirius XM Holding Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sirius XM Holding Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIRI use?
Our models discount Sirius XM Holding Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sirius XM Holding Inc it is $41.36 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of $28.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sirius XM Holding Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, SIRI trades below its calculated fair value: price $28.80, fair value $41.36, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.36). For Sirius XM Holding Inc the two are $12.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sirius XM Holding Inc worth?
The market values Sirius XM Holding Inc at about $10.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is $28.80; our models calculate a fair value of $41.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIRI?
Our models span a range for Sirius XM Holding Inc: cautious scenario $25.88, base $41.36, optimistic $58.84 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price $28.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIRI?
Sirius XM Holding Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 0.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SIRI?
The PEG ratio of Sirius XM Holding Inc is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sirius XM Holding Inc (SIRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sirius XM Holding Inc (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIRI from its 52-week high?
Sirius XM Holding Inc trades at $28.80, about 4% below its 52-week high of $30.11 and 49% above the low of $19.33 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sirius XM Holding Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sirius XM Holding Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price $28.80, calculated fair value $41.36 (+44%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIRI calculated?
We run Sirius XM Holding Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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