Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $10.5B
Sirius XM Holdings
SIRI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $44.03 to $41.36 (−6.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 38% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($30.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($30.49 to $58.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.21 – $69.65 · fair‑value band $30.49 – $58.84 · the $29.88 price screens below the $41.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) currently trades at $29.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.36, implying the stock looks roughly 38.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sirius XM Holdings generated revenue of $8.6B at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at $9.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $30.49 (bear case) to $58.84 (bull case); at $29.88, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at 38%, SIRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($72.17) versus Economic Profit ($14.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform.
Full company description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news channels, as well as podcast and infotainment services on subscription fee basis; and live, curated, and exclusive and on demand programming services through satellite radio systems and streamed through applications for mobile and home devices, and other consumer electronic equipment. This segment also distributes satellite radios through automakers and retailers, as well as its website; offers advertising other ancillary services; sells radios and accessories; and offers location-based services through two-way wireless connectivity, including safety, security, convenience, maintenance and data, remote vehicles diagnostic, and stolen or parked vehicle locator services, as well as data services related to graphical weather and fuel prices. In addition, this segment provides music channels on the DISH Network satellite television service as a programming package; Travel Link, a suite of data services that include graphical weather, fuel prices, sports schedule and scores, and movie listings; graphic information related to road closings, traffic flow, and incident data for consumers with in-vehicle navigation systems; real-time weather services in vehicles, boats, and planes; music programming and commercial-free music services for office, restaurants, and other business; and wireless communications service. The Pandora and Off-platform segment operates music, comedy, and podcast streaming platform, which offers personalized experience for listener through mobile devices, vehicle speakers, and connected devices; and provides advertising services. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sirius XM Holdings reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $8.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $805M in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.
Watch SIRI: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sirius XM Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
- Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Low Churn and Raised ...
- Did the Wheels Just Fall Off on Sirius XM in 2026?
- Sirius XM (SIRI) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Peer Group
Entertainment · 268 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.77 | C$2.96 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $96.30 | $89.55 | -7% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $26.87 | $9.13 | -66% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $178.44 | $46.89 | -74% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €18.91 | €14.78 | -22% |
| TKO Group TKO | $184.40 | $22.16 | -88% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 60.49 MXN | +10% |
| Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 | ¥11.77 | ¥10.97 | -7% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 456.00 IDR | 221.09 IDR | -52% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹235.99 | ₹61.98 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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