UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of UnitedHealth Group BRL 21.53, price BRL 27.82, upside -22.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$18.42 – R$51.52 · fair‑value band R$12.42 – R$27.05 · the R$27.82 price screens above the R$21.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare.
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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34) currently trades at R$27.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$21.53, 22.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$25.33 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$27.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$5.51, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$12.42 (bear) to R$27.05 (bull), the price of R$27.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
UnitedHealth Group reported revenue of $448B in FY2025 versus $285B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $12.1B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$2.0T (≈ $383B) · P/E ratio 28.4 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) R$0.9800 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% · Operating margin 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −23%, UNHH34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$12.42Fair Value R$21.53Bull R$27.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 4%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UnitedHealth Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNHH34
Frequently asked questions
Is UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$21.53 versus a price of R$27.82, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNHH34?
Our model-based fair value for UnitedHealth Group is R$21.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$27.82.
What is the quality score of UNHH34?
UnitedHealth Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$21.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$12.42, optimistic scenario R$27.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UnitedHealth Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$21.53, about −23% upside versus a price of R$27.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$12.42, optimistic scenario R$27.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
UnitedHealth Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $450B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UnitedHealth Group it is R$21.53 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$27.82. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UnitedHealth Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, UNHH34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$27.82, fair value R$21.53, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNHH34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$27.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$21.53). For UnitedHealth Group the two are R$6.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UnitedHealth Group worth?
The market values UnitedHealth Group at about R$2.0T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$27.82; our models calculate a fair value of R$21.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNHH34?
Our models span a range for UnitedHealth Group: cautious scenario R$12.42, base R$21.53, optimistic R$27.05 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$27.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is UNHH34 from its 52-week high?
UnitedHealth Group trades at R$27.82, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$31.70 and 45% above the low of R$19.17 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$21.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UnitedHealth Group?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value CVS Health Corporation, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, Humana Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UnitedHealth Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$27.82, calculated fair value R$21.53 (−23%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNHH34 calculated?
We run UnitedHealth Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$21.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. UnitedHealth Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$27.82. Our model-based fair value is R$21.53, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UnitedHealth Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$27.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$12.42 to R$27.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of UnitedHealth Group
How large is the market capitalisation of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The market capitalisation of UnitedHealth Group is R$2.0T (≈ $383B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of UnitedHealth Group is 28.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UnitedHealth Group is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
Earnings per share at UnitedHealth Group are R$0.9800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The net margin of UnitedHealth Group is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UnitedHealth Group is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UnitedHealth Group is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
The operating margin of UnitedHealth Group is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
Revenue at UnitedHealth Group is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34)?
Earnings per share at UnitedHealth Group are growing +0.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34) generate?
The free cash flow of UnitedHealth Group is $16.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does UnitedHealth Group (UNHH34) carry?
The net debt of UnitedHealth Group is $54.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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