Humana Inc (HUM) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $48.0B
Humana Inc
HUM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $126.93 to $127.61 (+0.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −6.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($210.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $162.46 – $540.03 · fair‑value band $120.87 – $210.27 · the $367.24 price screens above the $127.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Humana Inc (HUM) currently trades at $367.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.61, implying the stock looks roughly 65.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Humana Inc generated revenue of $137B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 23.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at $8.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $120.87 (bear case) to $210.27 (bull case); at $367.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -65%, HUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($171.20) versus Economic Profit ($43.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell.
Full company description
Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment offers individual Medicare Advantage products, including health insurance benefits, including wellness programs, chronic care management, and care coordination; individual Medicare stand-alone prescription drug products (PDP); group Medicare advantage and Medicare stand-alone PDP; Medicare supplements; specialty and ancillary insurance comprising dental, vision, life and disability; and administrative services to arrange health care services for active-duty and retired military personnel and dependents, as well as pharmacy benefit managers. Its CenterWell segment operates full-service, value-based senior focused primary care centers under the Conviva Senior Primary Care and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands; a management services organization; CenterWell Home Health, a home health provider; and OneHome, which manages post-acute patient needs, as well as provides pharmacy and hospice solutions. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Humana Inc reported revenue of $130B in FY2025 versus $83.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.
HUM screens 65% overvalued. Compare with UnitedHealth Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Humana’s (HUM) Path to Recovery and Growth
- Humana Community Day 2026 Mobilizes Thousands of Employees Nationwide to Support Healthier Communities
- Is Humana (HUM) an Undervalued Turnaround Play as Medicare Margins Recover?
- HUM Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Initiatives, Operational Progress, and Medicare Advantage Strategy
Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group UNH | $423.38 | $292.06 | -31% |
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $104.15 | $42.54 | -59% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $372.85 | $431.40 | +16% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $304.50 | $495.42 | +63% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $66.61 | $111.96 | +68% |
| Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH | $233.31 | $199.31 | -15% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $29.10 | $58.20 | +100% |
| Alignment Healthcare, Inc ALHC | $20.60 | $2.37 | -88% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $31.93 | $16.44 | -49% |
| Bradsaúde S.A SAUD3 | R$15.35 | R$20.75 | +35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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