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The Cigna Group (CI) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $77.6B

TC The Cigna Group logo The Cigna Group CI · US
Price$275.25
Fair Value$495.42
Upside+80.0%
Quality63/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.3% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
2.09% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Moderate moat 50/100
Evidence: High Range $321.72 – $619.27 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −4.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 80% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($321.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($321.72 to $619.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$353.95 $175.83 Fair Value $495.42 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $175.83 – $353.95 · fair‑value band $321.72 – $619.27 · the $275.25 price screens below the $495.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

The Cigna Group (CI) currently trades at $275.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $495.42, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, The Cigna Group generated revenue of $278B at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $23.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $321.72 (bear case) to $619.27 (bull case); at $275.25, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at 80%, CI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $324.81 $647.31 $1,202 80
Residual Income $154.84 $199.72 $525.10 76
Rev-Margin DCF $257.74 $510.60 $842.70 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $329.49 $685.55 $1,318 38
Owner Earnings $286.27 $605.45 $1,172 31
5Y Revenue Exit $257.74 $516.94 $870.39 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $322.62 $652.67 $1,071 41
5Y P/E Exit $258.57 $518.69 $817.67 38
10Y Revenue Exit $267.36 $523.82 $921.03 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $321.60 $624.12 $1,091 37
10Y P/E Exit $278.87 $525.11 $876.26 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $153.13 $746.87 $1,029 54
Lynch FV $200.35 $286.22 $372.08 50
PEG = 1.0 $200.35 $286.22 $372.08 46
EPV $192.56 $239.27 $280.14 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $55.92 $116.26 $184.44 70
DDM Multi-Stage $55.92 $98.04 $122.02 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $337.78 $450.38 $562.97 63
P/S Multiple $287.12 $382.82 $478.53 58
P/B Multiple $287.12 $382.82 $478.53 55
EV/EBIT $378.20 $533.50 $688.79 53
EV/EBITDA $351.07 $497.32 $643.57 54
EV/Revenue $226.36 $360.95 $495.54 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $78.84 $105.65 $157.69 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $324.81 $647.31 $1,202 80
Rev-Margin DCF $257.74 $510.60 $842.70 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $154.84 $199.72 $525.10 76
ROIC Compounder $210.67 $323.57 $456.46 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $302.42 $432.02 $561.63 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($525.11) versus Dividend Discount ($98.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $278B
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6%
Net margin 2.3%
Return on equity 16.3%
Free cash flow $8.4B FY2025
P/E ratio 12.4
More key figures
Operating margin 5.5%
EPS (TTM) $23.59
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +29.1%
Net debt $23.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. It operates through two segments: Evernorth Health Services and Cigna Healthcare.

Full company description

The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. It operates through two segments: Evernorth Health Services and Cigna Healthcare. The Evernorth Health Services segment includes Pharmacy Benefit Services and Specialty and Care Services, offering pharmacy benefit management, drug claim adjudication, retail pharmacy network administration, benefit design consultation, drug utilization review, drug formulary management, pharmacy benefits, home delivery pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, specialty pharmaceutical distribution, and clinical programs for whole-person health outcomes. The Cigna Healthcare segment comprises U.S. Healthcare and International Health, delivering comprehensive medical and coordinated solutions such as employer medical plans, individual and family plans, behavioral health, consumer health engagement, dental, pharmacy management, stop-loss insurance, global health care, and local health care solutions, as well as health care benefits for mobile individuals and employees of multinational organizations. The company offers other operations, including corporate-owned life insurance, reinsurance, and certain run-off and non-strategic businesses. The company distributes its products and services through brokers and consultants; directly to employers, unions and other groups, or individuals; and private and public exchanges. The company was formerly known as Cigna Corporation and changed its name to The Cigna Group in February 2023. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Cigna Group reported revenue of $275B in FY2025 versus $174B in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $6.0B in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$275B
Latest YoY
+11.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+11.4%
Avg. growth/yr (36Y)
+9.2%
Revenue +12.1%/yr
FY21 $174B
FY22 $181B
FY23 $195B
FY24 $247B
FY25 $275B
Net income +2.6%/yr
FY21 $5.4B
FY22 $6.7B
FY23 $5.2B
FY24 $3.4B
FY25 $6.0B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Cigna Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CI

Peer Group

Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside +80% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.74× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 9.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.88× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 39
FUTURE 23 · sector 23
PAST 65 · sector 41
HEALTH 63 · sector 65
DIVIDEND 42 · sector 0

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UnitedHealth Group UNH $423.38 $292.06 -31%
CVS Health Corporation CVS $104.15 $42.54 -59%
Elevance Health, Inc ELV $372.85 $431.40 +16%
Humana Inc HUM $400.00 $127.61 -68%
Centene Corporation CNC $66.61 $111.96 +68%
Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH $233.31 $199.31 -15%
Oscar Health, Inc OSCR $29.10 $58.20 +100%
Alignment Healthcare, Inc ALHC $20.60 $2.37 -88%
Progyny, Inc PGNY $31.93 $16.44 -49%
Bradsaúde S.A SAUD3 R$15.35 R$20.75 +35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The Cigna Group (CI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $495.42 versus a price of $275.25, about +80% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CI?
Our model-based fair value for The Cigna Group is $495.42 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $275.25.
What is the quality score of CI?
The Cigna Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The Cigna Group (CI)?
The Cigna Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $278B (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CI?
The net profit margin of The Cigna Group is about 2.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does The Cigna Group pay a dividend?
The Cigna Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 14, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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