Alignment Healthcare, Inc (ALHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $4.3B
Alignment Healthcare, Inc
ALHC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −28.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.47 – $27.27 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $2.68 · the $14.37 price screens above the $2.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Alignment Healthcare, Inc (ALHC) currently trades at $14.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.37, implying the stock looks roughly 83.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alignment Healthcare, Inc generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 33.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $240M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.07 (bear case) to $2.68 (bull case); at $14.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -84%, ALHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.59) versus Asset-Based ($0.5800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. operates a consumer-centric healthcare platform for seniors in the United States. It delivers customized healthcare experience to meet the needs of seniors through its Medicare Advantage plans. Alignment Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in Orange, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alignment Healthcare, Inc reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +35.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$724K in FY2025.
ALHC screens 84% overvalued. Compare with UnitedHealth Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can ALHC's Raised 2026 Outlook Offset Heavier Second-Half Spending?
- Lowey Dannenberg, P.C. is Investigating Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) for Potential Violations of the Federal Securities Laws
- Is ALHC Stock a Buy as Fast Growth Clashes With Premium Valuation?
- Kaplan Fox Reminds Investors of an Ongoing Investigation into Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) for Possible Securities Law Violatio
Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group UNH | $423.38 | $292.06 | -31% |
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $104.15 | $42.54 | -59% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $372.85 | $431.40 | +16% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $304.50 | $495.42 | +63% |
| Humana Inc HUM | $400.00 | $127.61 | -68% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $66.61 | $111.96 | +68% |
| Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH | $233.31 | $199.31 | -15% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $29.10 | $58.20 | +100% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $31.93 | $16.44 | -49% |
| Bradsaúde S.A SAUD3 | R$15.35 | R$20.75 | +35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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