EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of United Parcel Service, Inc BRL 27.22, price BRL 31.53, upside -13.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · BR · ISIN US9113121068

UP Broad data Sep 29, 2026

United Parcel Service, Inc

UPSS34 · SA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value R$27.22 · Overvalued (−13.7%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!20.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 60/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$65.78 R$26.51 Fair Value R$27.22 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$26.51 – R$65.78 · fair‑value band R$16.12 – R$39.93 · the R$31.53 price screens above the R$27.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S.

Show more

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock analysis

United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34) currently trades at R$31.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$27.22, 13.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$41.41 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$31.53 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$4.75, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$16.12 (bear) to R$39.93 (bull), the price of R$31.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

United Parcel Service, Inc reported revenue of $88.7B in FY2025 versus $97.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $5.6B in FY2025, compounding −18.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap R$507B (≈ $97.1B) · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) R$2.00 · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 33.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.5% · Operating margin 6.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −14%, UPSS34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$16.12 Fair Value R$27.22 Bull R$39.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R$16.09 R$24.28 R$40.83 79
Growth DCF R$17.04 R$25.08 R$39.92 77
Owner Earnings R$19.89 R$29.42 R$48.65 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$16.09 R$24.28 R$40.83 79
Owner Earnings R$19.89 R$29.42 R$48.65 75
5Y Revenue Exit R$19.41 R$32.43 R$52.04 71
5Y EBITDA Exit R$27.99 R$46.97 R$72.95 74
5Y P/E Exit R$22.05 R$36.90 R$55.24 70
10Y Revenue Exit R$17.08 R$28.17 R$40.84 66
10Y EBITDA Exit R$23.19 R$37.73 R$54.30 68
10Y P/E Exit R$19.55 R$31.11 R$42.90 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$16.56 R$26.72 R$32.25 67
EPV R$11.62 R$14.79 R$17.57 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$21.67 R$26.17 R$31.06 69
DDM Multi-Stage R$21.67 R$28.81 R$37.75 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$38.37 R$51.16 R$63.94 63
P/S Multiple R$31.06 R$41.41 R$51.76 58
P/B Multiple R$23.94 R$31.92 R$39.90 55
EV/EBIT R$36.33 R$50.91 R$65.50 66
EV/EBITDA R$42.01 R$58.48 R$74.95 67
EV/Revenue R$23.81 R$37.19 R$50.57 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$3.55 R$4.75 R$7.09 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$17.04 R$25.08 R$39.92 77
Rev-Margin DCF R$19.41 R$32.96 R$49.99 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$13.17 R$15.22 R$22.93 75
ROIC Compounder R$11.82 R$15.56 R$19.78 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$27.09 R$38.70 R$50.31 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when UPSS34 reaches fair value

Put UPSS34 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%

UPSS34 screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with Deutsche Post AG →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare United Parcel Service, Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Deutsche Post AG DHL €55.74 €137.08 +146%
FedEx Corporation FDX $289.65 $349.54 +21%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,199 kr 711.95 −41%
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €24.49 €14.24 −42%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 224.50 CHF 147.92 −34%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $188.58 $116.66 −38%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.54 ¥109.70 +259%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $226.07 $133.80 −41%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $148.24 $87.31 −41%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$153.20 HK$260.67 +70%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

United Parcel Service, Inc · Fair Value
R$27.22 −14%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Parcel Service, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UPSS34

Frequently asked questions

Is United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$27.22 versus a price of R$31.53, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UPSS34?
Our model-based fair value for United Parcel Service, Inc is R$27.22 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$31.53.
What is the quality score of UPSS34?
United Parcel Service, Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$27.22 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$16.12, optimistic scenario R$39.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Parcel Service, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$27.22, about −14% upside versus a price of R$31.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$16.12, optimistic scenario R$39.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
United Parcel Service, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $88.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Parcel Service, Inc it is R$27.22 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$31.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Parcel Service, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, UPSS34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$31.53, fair value R$27.22, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPSS34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$31.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$27.22). For United Parcel Service, Inc the two are R$4.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Parcel Service, Inc worth?
The market values United Parcel Service, Inc at about R$507B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$31.53; our models calculate a fair value of R$27.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPSS34?
Our models span a range for United Parcel Service, Inc: cautious scenario R$16.12, base R$27.22, optimistic R$39.93 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$31.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is UPSS34 from its 52-week high?
United Parcel Service, Inc trades at R$31.53, about 18% below its 52-week high of R$38.38 and 16% above the low of R$27.08 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$27.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Parcel Service, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$31.53, calculated fair value R$27.22 (−14%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPSS34 calculated?
We run United Parcel Service, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$27.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. United Parcel Service, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$31.53. Our model-based fair value is R$27.22, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Parcel Service, Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$16.12 to R$39.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of United Parcel Service, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The market capitalisation of United Parcel Service, Inc is R$507B (≈ $97.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of United Parcel Service, Inc is 18.6 (as of Jul 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Parcel Service, Inc is 1.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
Earnings per share at United Parcel Service, Inc are R$2.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The net margin of United Parcel Service, Inc is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Parcel Service, Inc is 33.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Parcel Service, Inc is 14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
The operating margin of United Parcel Service, Inc is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
Revenue at United Parcel Service, Inc is growing −1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34)?
Earnings per share at United Parcel Service, Inc are growing −27.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34) generate?
The free cash flow of United Parcel Service, Inc is $4.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does United Parcel Service, Inc (UPSS34) carry?
The net debt of United Parcel Service, Inc is $18.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Continue in the live analysis

Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Open the live analysis →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.