Deutsche Post AG (DHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Deutsche Post AG is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Industrials · DE · Market cap €63.7B · ISIN DE0005552004
At a glance
DPDeutsche Post AGDHL · XETRA
Price€55.12
Fair Value€53.18
Upside−3.5%
Quality63/100
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of €53.18.
As of Sep 1, 2026, the fair value of Deutsche Post AG is €53.18 per share against a price of €55.12, so the fair value sits 4% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.45% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Weak on valuation: 29 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange €39.88 to €66.47
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −0.4% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.98 – €57.82 · fair‑value band €39.88 – €66.47 · the €55.12 price screens above the €53.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Deutsche Post AG (DHL) currently trades at €55.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €53.18, implying the stock looks roughly 3.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €143.20 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the €55.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €13.31, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Deutsche Post AG generated revenue of €83.0B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at €22.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Scenario range: €39.88 (bear) to €66.47 (bull), the price of €55.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −4%, DHL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.8183 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio17.8
P/S ratio0.75P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€3.09price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8
Dividend yield3.4%payout 61.5%
Net margin4.2%FY2025
Return on equity15.6%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)7.5%avg 5y
Operating margin7.2%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)€83.0BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−1.9%3y avg −4.3%
EPS growth (YoY)+7.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€5.6BFY2025
Net debt€22.1BFY2025 · ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality63/100
Of which business quality 60
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance100
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany.
Full company description
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods; and additional services, such as registered mail, insured items, redirection, and storage, as well as export services. Deutsche Post AG was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Deutsche Post AG reported revenue of €82.9B in FY2025 versus €81.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€82.9B
Latest YoY
−1.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+36.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+5.3%
Dividend yield3.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 5.3% vs 10Y 6.4%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.5% (2020) → 4.8% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop187% (2008) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
Revenue+0.3%/yr
FY21€81.7B
FY22€94.4B
FY23€81.8B
FY24€84.2B
FY25€82.9B
Net income−8.8%/yr
FY21€5.1B
FY22€5.4B
FY23€3.7B
FY24€3.3B
FY25€3.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+6.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share+4.8 %
of which total revenue +4.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.7 %
EBIT margin+1.9 %
Tax rate−2.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.8× · Pricier than median
P/B3.33× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.89× · Pricier than median
P/FCF13.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.2× · Pricier than median
PEG2.82× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Deutsche Post AG deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+0.2 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+4.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price8.85 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.3 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE29· sector 44
FUTURE0· sector 8
PAST62· sector 26
HEALTH80· sector 94
DIVIDEND69· sector 56
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
Is Deutsche Post AG (DHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €53.18 versus a price of €55.12, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DHL?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Post AG is €53.18 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €55.12.
What is the quality score of DHL?
Deutsche Post AG has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €53.18 (as of Sep 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €39.88, optimistic scenario €66.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deutsche Post AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €53.18, about −4% upside versus a price of €55.12 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €39.88, optimistic scenario €66.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Deutsche Post AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €83.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DHL?
The net profit margin of Deutsche Post AG is about 4.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Deutsche Post AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Post AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deutsche Post AG would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Sep 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DHL use?
Our models discount Deutsche Post AG at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutsche Post AG it is €53.18 per share (as of Sep 1, 2026), against a price of €55.12. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deutsche Post AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 1, 2026, DHL trades above its calculated fair value: price €55.12, fair value €53.18, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€55.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€53.18). For Deutsche Post AG the two are €1.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deutsche Post AG worth?
The market values Deutsche Post AG at about €63.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 1, 2026). Per share that is €55.12; our models calculate a fair value of €53.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DHL?
Our models span a range for Deutsche Post AG: cautious scenario €39.88, base €53.18, optimistic €66.47 per share (as of Sep 1, 2026, price €55.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DHL?
Deutsche Post AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Sep 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €53.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 3.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of DHL?
The PEG ratio of Deutsche Post AG is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deutsche Post AG (as of Sep 1, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DHL from its 52-week high?
Deutsche Post AG trades at €55.12, about 6% below its 52-week high of €51.76 and 55% above the low of €35.47 (as of Sep 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €53.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deutsche Post AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, Kuehne + Nagel International AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deutsche Post AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 1, 2026: price €55.12, calculated fair value €53.18 (−4%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DHL calculated?
We run Deutsche Post AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €53.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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