Deutsche Post AG (DHL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €63.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from €65.69 to €53.18 (−19.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from €39.88 (bear) to €66.47 (bull), base €53.18. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 67/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.98 – €57.82 · fair‑value band €39.88 – €66.47 · the €55.30 price screens above the €53.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Deutsche Post AG (DHL) currently trades at €55.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €53.18, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Deutsche Post AG generated revenue of €83.0B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at €22.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €39.88 (bear case) to €66.47 (bull case); at €55.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -4%, DHL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€141.07) versus Asset-Based (€13.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany.
Full company description
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods; and additional services, such as registered mail, insured items, redirection, and storage, as well as export services. Deutsche Post AG was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Deutsche Post AG reported revenue of €82.9B in FY2025 versus €81.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- DHL 30% profit growth led by heavy air freight
- Deutsche Post Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Beyond FedEx, UPS and DHL: Tariff Refunds Get Murkier for International Carriers
- Leidos (LDOS) Launches Parcata As It Teams Up With DHL On UK Defence
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 216 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 191,200 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +145% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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