Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kuehne & Nagel stock CHF 148, price CHF 245, that is 39.7% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 143.13 – CHF 302.31 · fair‑value band CHF 104.19 – CHF 191.65 · the CHF 245.20 price screens above the CHF 147.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Kuehne + Nagel International AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates through four segments: Sea Logistics, Air Logistics, Road Logistics, and Contract Logistics.
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It offers full loads and less than container loads, reefer cold chain solutions for temperature-sensitive goods, order management, and VinLog, a wine, spirits, and drinks logistics solutions, as well as cargo insurance and customs brokerage; and air freight services, such as air charter services, time-critical logistics, sea-air logistics, airside logistics, customs clearance, and smart labels.
The company also provides road logistics include full truck load, less than truck load, and groupage services; and fulfillment, warehouse, and distribution services, such as fulfilment operation, distribution and last mile delivery, in-plant, inventory and order management, packaging, returns management, waste management, custom, quality inspections, and value-added services.
In addition, it offers customs clearances services comprising export and import customs clearance and transit services, one-stop digital customs solution, and customs and trade consultancy services, as well as inbound logistics for e-commerce and cross-border e-commerce.
Further, the company operates various logistic projects, such as industrial, renewable, energy, marine logistics, one global system, engineering, and chartering, and offers CO2e emissions calculator for project logistics.
Additionally, it offers sustainable logistics; and supply chain management services comprising 4PL integrated logistics and order management. The company serves aerospace, automotive, mobility, consumer, healthcare, high-tech and semiconductor, industrial, and perishables industries.
The company was founded in 1890 and is based in Schindellegi, Switzerland. Kuehne + Nagel International AG operates as a subsidiary of Kuehne Holding AG.
Stock analysis
Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) currently trades at CHF 245.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 147.92, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 179.64 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the CHF 245.20 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 50.22, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 104.19 (bear) to CHF 191.65 (bull), the price of CHF 245.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kuehne & Nagel reported revenue of CHF 24.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 32.8B in FY2021, a compound −7.1%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 882M in FY2025, compounding −18.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 29.2B Large · P/E ratio 29.8 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) CHF 8.22 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 42.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −40%, KNIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 104.19Fair Value CHF 147.92BullCHF 191.65
Price CHF 245.20 · Downside -39.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 1.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.2% vs 2.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The asset-light model supports resilience with market share gains in sea logistics, yet low gross margins indicate limited pricing strength and thin evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: A reversal in freight rates would directly reduce margins and profitability in the core air freight and sea logistics operations.
Kuehne+Nagel raised its 2026 profit guidance for the third time after air freight volumes surged on tech sector demand and a new long-term Amazon partnership was announced. The asset-light model shows clear resilience with market share gains in sea logistics too. Our models still see the stock as overvalued. Does the fresh growth momentum from big tech clients outweigh the threat of freight rate reversals?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
P/B13.40× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.14× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow18.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.27× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)49· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 147.92 versus a price of CHF 245.20, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KNIN?
Our model-based fair value for Kuehne & Nagel is CHF 147.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 245.20.
What is the quality score of KNIN?
Kuehne & Nagel has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 147.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 104.19, optimistic scenario CHF 191.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kuehne & Nagel stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 147.92, about 40% lower versus a price of CHF 245.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 104.19, optimistic scenario CHF 191.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Kuehne & Nagel reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 25.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Kuehne & Nagel pay a dividend?
Kuehne & Nagel currently shows a dividend yield of 2.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kuehne & Nagel would have to grow free cash flow by +4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNIN use?
Our models discount Kuehne & Nagel at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kuehne & Nagel that is +4.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kuehne & Nagel grew +3.7 % a year. The price currently implies +4.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kuehne & Nagel (+4.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.32 %: that much free cash flow Kuehne & Nagel produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kuehne & Nagel it is CHF 147.92 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of CHF 245.20. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kuehne & Nagel stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, KNIN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 245.20, fair value CHF 147.92, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 245.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 147.92). For Kuehne & Nagel the two are CHF 97.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kuehne & Nagel worth?
The market values Kuehne & Nagel at about CHF 29.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is CHF 245.20; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 147.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNIN?
Our models span a range for Kuehne & Nagel: cautious scenario CHF 104.19, base CHF 147.92, optimistic CHF 191.65 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price CHF 245.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNIN?
Kuehne & Nagel trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 147.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 22.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 13.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 18.3.
What is the PEG ratio of KNIN?
The PEG ratio of Kuehne & Nagel is 2.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kuehne & Nagel (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 42.1%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNIN from its 52-week high?
Kuehne & Nagel trades at CHF 245.20, at its 52-week high of CHF 245.20 and 69% above the low of CHF 145.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 147.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kuehne & Nagel?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kuehne & Nagel stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price CHF 245.20, calculated fair value CHF 147.92 (−40%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNIN calculated?
We run Kuehne & Nagel through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 147.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Kuehne & Nagel itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was CHF 245.20. Our model-based fair value is CHF 147.92, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kuehne & Nagel right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 191.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 104.19 to CHF 191.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Kuehne & Nagel grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kuehne & Nagel
How large is the market capitalisation of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The market capitalisation of Kuehne & Nagel is CHF 29.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kuehne & Nagel is 1.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Earnings per share at Kuehne & Nagel are CHF 8.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The dividend yield of Kuehne & Nagel is 2.4% (payout 73.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The net margin of Kuehne & Nagel is 3.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kuehne & Nagel is 42.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kuehne & Nagel is 17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
The operating margin of Kuehne & Nagel is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Revenue at Kuehne & Nagel is growing +22.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN)?
Earnings per share at Kuehne & Nagel are growing +57.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN) carry?
The net debt of Kuehne & Nagel is CHF 3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026