Universal Robina Corp (URC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Universal Robina Corp PHP 40.91, price PHP 58.95, upside -30.6%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 52.90 PHP – 133.58 PHP · fair‑value band 28.06 PHP – 53.19 PHP · the 58.95 PHP price screens above the 40.91 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Universal Robina Corp (URC) currently trades at 58.95 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 40.91 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 45.00 PHP per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 58.95 PHP price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 15.26 PHP, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 28.06 PHP (bear) to 53.19 PHP (bull), the price of 58.95 PHP sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Universal Robina Corp reported revenue of 162B PHP in FY2024 versus 113B PHP in FY2020, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was 11.7B PHP in FY2024, compounding +2.1%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 306B PHP (≈ $4.9B) · P/E ratio 30.1 · P/S ratio 2.17 · EPS (TTM) 4.61 PHP · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Non-Cyclicals peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −31%, URC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 28.06 PHPFair Value 40.91 PHPBull 53.19 PHP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.61 PHP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 10%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food & Tobacco · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Food & Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Universal Robina Corp (URC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 40.91 PHP versus a price of 58.95 PHP, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of URC?
Our model-based fair value for Universal Robina Corp is 40.91 PHP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 58.95 PHP.
What is the quality score of URC?
Universal Robina Corp has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 40.91 PHP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 28.06 PHP, optimistic scenario 53.19 PHP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Universal Robina Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 40.91 PHP, about −31% upside versus a price of 58.95 PHP (overvalued). Cautious scenario 28.06 PHP, optimistic scenario 53.19 PHP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Universal Robina Corp pay a dividend?
Universal Robina Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Universal Robina Corp it is 40.91 PHP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 58.95 PHP. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Universal Robina Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, URC trades above its calculated fair value: price 58.95 PHP, fair value 40.91 PHP, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of URC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (58.95 PHP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (40.91 PHP). For Universal Robina Corp the two are 18.04 PHP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Universal Robina Corp worth?
The market values Universal Robina Corp at about 306B PHP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 58.95 PHP; our models calculate a fair value of 40.91 PHP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about URC?
Our models span a range for Universal Robina Corp: cautious scenario 28.06 PHP, base 40.91 PHP, optimistic 53.19 PHP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 58.95 PHP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of URC?
Universal Robina Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 40.91 PHP is built from several models across several years.
How far is URC from its 52-week high?
Universal Robina Corp trades at 58.95 PHP, about 26% below its 52-week high of 79.22 PHP and 5% above the low of 55.90 PHP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 40.91 PHP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Universal Robina Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Non-Cyclicals) we also value FB, MONDE, CNPF, DNL, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Universal Robina Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 58.95 PHP, calculated fair value 40.91 PHP (−31%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of URC calculated?
We run Universal Robina Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 40.91 PHP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Universal Robina Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 58.95 PHP. Our model-based fair value is 40.91 PHP, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Universal Robina Corp right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (53.19 PHP). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (28.06 PHP to 53.19 PHP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Universal Robina Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
The market capitalisation of Universal Robina Corp is 306B PHP (≈ $4.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Universal Robina Corp is 2.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
Earnings per share at Universal Robina Corp are 4.61 PHP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
The dividend yield of Universal Robina Corp is 2.7% (payout 34.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
The net margin of Universal Robina Corp is 7.2% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Universal Robina Corp (URC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Universal Robina Corp is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026