URC Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Non-Cyclicals · PH · Market cap 306B PHP
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price +3.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range (32.36 PHP to 61.19 PHP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 52.90 PHP – 133.58 PHP · fair‑value band 32.36 PHP – 61.19 PHP · the 61.20 PHP price screens above the 47.86 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
URC (URC) currently trades at 61.20 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 47.86 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 21.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 30.1. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 32.36 PHP (bear case) to 61.19 PHP (bull case); at 61.20 PHP, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Non-Cyclicals peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -22%, URC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (47.35 PHP) versus Asset-Based (16.06 PHP). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
URC reported revenue of 162B PHP in FY2024 versus 113B PHP in FY2020, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was 11.7B PHP in FY2024, compounding +2.1%/yr from FY2020.
URC screens 22% overvalued. Compare with FB →
Peer Group
Food & Tobacco · 20 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food & Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food & Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| FB FB | 49.00 PHP | 49.03 PHP | +0% |
| CNPF CNPF | 32.50 PHP | 64.84 PHP | +100% |
| 540743 540743 | ₹556.65 | ₹616.73 | +11% |
| DNL DNL | 3.64 PHP | 3.43 PHP | -6% |
| RFM RFM | 5.41 PHP | 8.87 PHP | +64% |
| AXLM AXLM | 2.70 PHP | 2.89 PHP | +7% |
| EASY BIO,Inc. 353810 | 6,120 KRW | 17,633 KRW | +188% |
| Helixmith Co 084990 | 3,315 KRW | 823.10 KRW | -75% |
| LFM LFM | 26.60 PHP | 7.12 PHP | -73% |
| MSC Co 009780 | 6,020 KRW | 22,224 KRW | +269% |
Compare URC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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