LFM Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Non-Cyclicals · PH · Market cap 6.5B PHP
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 31 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 10, 2026, revised from 9.53 PHP to 7.12 PHP (−25.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −10.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.12 PHP). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.72 PHP – 56.21 PHP · fair‑value band 5.97 PHP – 7.12 PHP · the 26.60 PHP price screens above the 7.12 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
LFM (LFM) currently trades at 26.60 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.12 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 73.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 42.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 5.97 PHP (bear case) to 7.12 PHP (bull case); at 26.60 PHP, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Non-Cyclicals peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -73%, LFM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (8.78 PHP) versus Dividend Discount (1.76 PHP). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
LFM reported revenue of 1.2B PHP in FY2024 versus 1.4B PHP in FY2020, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 130M PHP in FY2024, compounding −9.3%/yr from FY2020.
LFM screens 73% overvalued. Compare with FB →
Peer Group
Food & Tobacco · 19 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food & Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food & Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| FB FB | 49.00 PHP | 49.03 PHP | +0% |
| URC URC | 61.20 PHP | 47.86 PHP | -22% |
| CNPF CNPF | 32.50 PHP | 64.84 PHP | +100% |
| 540743 540743 | ₹556.65 | ₹616.73 | +11% |
| DNL DNL | 3.64 PHP | 3.43 PHP | -6% |
| RFM RFM | 5.41 PHP | 8.87 PHP | +64% |
| AXLM AXLM | 2.70 PHP | 2.89 PHP | +7% |
| EASY BIO,Inc. 353810 | 6,120 KRW | 17,633 KRW | +188% |
| Helixmith Co 084990 | 3,315 KRW | 823.10 KRW | -75% |
| MSC Co 009780 | 6,020 KRW | 22,224 KRW | +269% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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