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United Utilities Group (UUGWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of United Utilities Group $11.76, price $18.96, upside -38.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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UU
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
United Utilities Group
UUGWF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $11.76 · Strongly overvalued (−38.0%)
!Quality 53/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!2.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 75/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.25 – $18.98 · fair‑value band $7.17 – $18.32 · the $18.96 price screens above the $11.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
United Utilities Group PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It is also involved in the energy generation, corporate trustee, financing, and property management activities. The company operates approximately 122,000 kilometers of water and wastewater pipes.
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United Utilities Group PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It is also involved in the energy generation, corporate trustee, financing, and property management activities. The company operates approximately 122,000 kilometers of water and wastewater pipes. United Utilities Group PLC was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Warrington, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
United Utilities Group (UUGWF) currently trades at $18.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.76, 38.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.06 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $18.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.68, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.17 (bear) to $18.32 (bull), the price of $18.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
United Utilities Group reported revenue of £2.6B in FY2026 versus £1.9B in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was £588M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $13.0B · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) $1.13 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 22.4% · Return on equity 27.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −38%, UUGWF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.17
Fair Value $11.76
Bull $18.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3022 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$6.05
$7.27
$11.04
75
EPV
n/a
$1.02
$3.25
68
ROIC Compounder
n/a
$1.02
$3.25
68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$7.13
$15.26
$19.37
66
PEG = 1.0
$2.34
$3.34
$4.35
57
EPV
n/a
$1.02
$3.25
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$14.16
$18.87
$23.59
63
P/S Multiple
$8.77
$11.69
$14.61
58
P/B Multiple
$5.41
$7.21
$9.01
55
EV/EBIT
$5.11
$12.42
$19.72
61
EV/EBITDA
$4.51
$11.61
$18.72
62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.00
$2.68
$4.01
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.05
$7.27
$11.04
75
ROIC Compounder
n/a
$1.02
$3.25
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$10.54
$15.06
$19.58
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Profitability
46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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’18
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 4.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 42%
2026 sits 187% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- United Utilities Group (LSE:UU.) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As Analyst Targets Split
- Majority of United Utilities shareholders approve pay plans despite backlash
- United Utilities under fire over plans to hand top bosses share ‘allowances’
- United Utilities Group (LSE:UU.) Stock Fair Value Edges Lower After Mixed Analyst Revisions
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $127.86 | $64.66 | −49% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $39.23 | $23.30 | −41% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.71 | HK$12.82 | +47% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.48 | ¥57.09 | +94% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $81.35 | $38.24 | −53% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.01 | ¥9.09 | +30% |
| Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group 600008 | ¥2.71 | ¥3.43 | +27% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.00 | ¥1.76 | −56% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $45.84 | $25.01 | −45% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $61.63 | $29.34 | −52% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is United Utilities Group (UUGWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.76 versus a price of $18.96, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UUGWF?
Our model-based fair value for United Utilities Group is $11.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.96.
What is the quality score of UUGWF?
United Utilities Group has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.17, optimistic scenario $18.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Utilities Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.76, about −38% upside versus a price of $18.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.17, optimistic scenario $18.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
United Utilities Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does United Utilities Group pay a dividend?
United Utilities Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Utilities Group it is $11.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.96. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Utilities Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, UUGWF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.96, fair value $11.76, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UUGWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.76). For United Utilities Group the two are $7.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Utilities Group worth?
The market values United Utilities Group at about $13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.96; our models calculate a fair value of $11.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UUGWF?
Our models span a range for United Utilities Group: cautious scenario $7.17, base $11.76, optimistic $18.32 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UUGWF?
United Utilities Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 5.1, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of UUGWF?
The PEG ratio of United Utilities Group is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Utilities Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 27.7%, debt of 5.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UUGWF from its 52-week high?
United Utilities Group trades at $18.96, at its 52-week high of $18.98 and 28% above the low of $14.78 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Utilities Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Utilities Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.96, calculated fair value $11.76 (−38%), Quality Score 53/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UUGWF calculated?
We run United Utilities Group through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. United Utilities Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $18.96. Our model-based fair value is $11.76, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Utilities Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($7.17 to $18.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of United Utilities Group (UUGWF) come from?
Earnings per share at United Utilities Group grew −1.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate −2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of United Utilities Group
How large is the market capitalisation of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The market capitalisation of United Utilities Group is $13.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Utilities Group is 3.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
Earnings per share at United Utilities Group are $1.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The dividend yield of United Utilities Group is 2.8% (payout 47.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The net margin of United Utilities Group is 22.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Utilities Group is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Utilities Group is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
The operating margin of United Utilities Group is 41.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
Revenue at United Utilities Group is growing +22.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Utilities Group (UUGWF)?
Earnings per share at United Utilities Group are growing +115% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does United Utilities Group (UUGWF) generate?
The free cash flow of United Utilities Group is −£110M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does United Utilities Group (UUGWF) carry?
The net debt of United Utilities Group is £9.7B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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