Vintage Energy Ltd (VEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$4.9M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0017). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0020 – A$0.1250 · the A$0.0020 price screens above the A$0.0017 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vintage Energy Ltd (VEN) currently trades at A$0.0020, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0017, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$4.1M. Revenue declined 24.7% year over year. Net debt stands at A$6.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -15%, VEN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0200) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vintage Energy Limited explores, acquires, and develops energy assets in Australia. The company primarily focuses on proven petroleum basins.
Full company description
Vintage Energy Limited explores, acquires, and develops energy assets in Australia. The company primarily focuses on proven petroleum basins. It holds petroleum exploration licenses in the Cooper/Eromanga basins, South Australia and Queensland; the Otway Basin, onshore South Australia and Victoria; the Galilee Basin, Queensland; and the Bonaparte Basin, Northern Territory. Vintage Energy Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Goodwood, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vintage Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$4.7M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$4.4M in FY2025.
VEN screens 15% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 318 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $126.78 | $90.15 | -29% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $201.71 | $105.24 | -48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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