Vermilion Energy Inc (VET) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $1.5B
Vermilion Energy Inc
VET · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $5.45 to $17.78 (+226.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +14.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 64% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.99 – $25.77 · fair‑value band $11.24 – $17.78 · the $10.86 price screens below the $17.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Vermilion Energy Inc (VET) currently trades at $10.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.78, implying the stock looks roughly 63.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vermilion Energy Inc generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of -46.7%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.7%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.24 (bear case) to $17.78 (bull case); at $10.86, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 64%, VET screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($29.76) versus Multiples ($5.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia.
Full company description
Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta, Canada; southwest Bordeaux and Paris Basin in France; the Netherlands; Germany; Ireland; Croatia; Slovakia; Hungary; and Australia. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vermilion Energy Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$653M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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