Villars Holding SA (VILN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Villars Holding SA CHF 622, price CHF 585, upside +6.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 419.13 – CHF 897.31 · fair‑value band CHF 488.37 – CHF 703.79 · the CHF 585.00 price screens below the CHF 621.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Villars Holding S.A. engages in the retail, coffee bars, and real estate and other businesses in Switzerland. The company operates coffee bars and restaurants under the Pause-Café and Xpresso-Café brands; Sous-Sol, a café, bar, and restaurant; Le Centre, a bar and restaurant; shops, service stations, kiosks, and bakeries under the Suard name.
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Villars Holding S.A. engages in the retail, coffee bars, and real estate and other businesses in Switzerland. The company operates coffee bars and restaurants under the Pause-Café and Xpresso-Café brands; Sous-Sol, a café, bar, and restaurant; Le Centre, a bar and restaurant; shops, service stations, kiosks, and bakeries under the Suard name. It is also involved in the management of real estate assets and development projects. Villars Holding S.A. was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Givisiez, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Villars Holding SA (VILN) currently trades at CHF 585.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 621.76, implying the stock looks roughly 5.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of CHF 655.09 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 585.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 62.35, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 488.37 (bear) to CHF 703.79 (bull), the price of CHF 585.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Villars Holding SA reported revenue of CHF 67.8M in FY2025 versus CHF 64.6M in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 2.8M in FY2025, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 61.1M · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) CHF 27.49 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 6%, VILN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 488.37Fair Value CHF 621.76Bull CHF 703.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 13.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+32.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 6%
2025 sits 85% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Villars Holding SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VILN
Frequently asked questions
Is Villars Holding SA (VILN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 621.76 versus a price of CHF 585.00, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VILN?
Our model-based fair value for Villars Holding SA is CHF 621.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 585.00.
What is the quality score of VILN?
Villars Holding SA has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 621.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 488.37, optimistic scenario CHF 703.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Villars Holding SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 621.76, about +6% upside versus a price of CHF 585.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 488.37, optimistic scenario CHF 703.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Villars Holding SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 67.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Villars Holding SA pay a dividend?
Villars Holding SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Villars Holding SA would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VILN use?
Our models discount Villars Holding SA at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Villars Holding SA that is -7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Villars Holding SA (VILN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Villars Holding SA grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies -7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Villars Holding SA (VILN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Villars Holding SA (-7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.69 %: that much free cash flow Villars Holding SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Villars Holding SA it is CHF 621.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 585.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Villars Holding SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VILN trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 585.00, fair value CHF 621.76, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VILN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 585.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 621.76). For Villars Holding SA the two are CHF 36.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Villars Holding SA worth?
The market values Villars Holding SA at about CHF 61.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 585.00; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 621.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VILN?
Our models span a range for Villars Holding SA: cautious scenario CHF 488.37, base CHF 621.76, optimistic CHF 703.79 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 585.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VILN?
Villars Holding SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 621.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 12.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Villars Holding SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VILN from its 52-week high?
Villars Holding SA trades at CHF 585.00, about 4% below its 52-week high of CHF 610.54 and 6% above the low of CHF 551.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 621.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Villars Holding SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Villars Holding SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 585.00, calculated fair value CHF 621.76 (+6%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VILN calculated?
We run Villars Holding SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 621.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Villars Holding SA currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was CHF 585.00. Our model-based fair value is CHF 621.76, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Villars Holding SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Villars Holding SA (VILN) come from?
Earnings per share at Villars Holding SA grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.0 %, EBIT margin +7.8 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Villars Holding SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The market capitalisation of Villars Holding SA is CHF 61.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Villars Holding SA is 0.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Earnings per share at Villars Holding SA are CHF 27.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The dividend yield of Villars Holding SA is 1.5% (payout 32.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The net margin of Villars Holding SA is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Villars Holding SA is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Villars Holding SA is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
The operating margin of Villars Holding SA is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Revenue at Villars Holding SA is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Villars Holding SA (VILN)?
Earnings per share at Villars Holding SA are growing +15.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Villars Holding SA (VILN) carry?
The net debt of Villars Holding SA is CHF 12.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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