Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V MXN 896, price MXN 1,165, upside -23.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico.
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Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA) currently trades at 1,165 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 896.15 MXN, 23.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 4,838 MXN per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the 1,165 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 276.03 MXN, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 616.49 MXN (bear) to 1,738 MXN (bull), the price of 1,165 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $652M in FY2021, a compound +39.6%/yr. Reported net income was $719M in FY2025, compounding +94.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 121B MXN (≈ $6.7B) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 2.46 · EPS (TTM) 137.41 MXN · Net margin 29.1% · Return on equity 29.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8% · Operating margin 44.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −23%, VISTAA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 616.49 MXNFair Value 896.15 MXNBull 1,738 MXN
Price 1,165 MXN · Upside -23.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (104.28 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+38.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−20% → 34%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 268 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)44.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth102.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VISTAA
Frequently asked questions
Is Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 896.15 MXN versus a price of 1,165 MXN, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VISTAA?
Our model-based fair value for Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 896.15 MXN (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,165 MXN.
What is the quality score of VISTAA?
Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 896.15 MXN (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 616.49 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,738 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 896.15 MXN, about −23% upside versus a price of 1,165 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 616.49 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,738 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V it is 896.15 MXN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 1,165 MXN. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, VISTAA trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,165 MXN, fair value 896.15 MXN, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VISTAA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,165 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (896.15 MXN). For Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V the two are 268.72 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V at about 121B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 1,165 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 896.15 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VISTAA?
Our models span a range for Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 616.49 MXN, base 896.15 MXN, optimistic 1,738 MXN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 1,165 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VISTAA?
Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 896.15 MXN is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.4 (reported for FY2025: 9.3). Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 29.8%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VISTAA from its 52-week high?
Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V trades at 1,165 MXN, about 16% below its 52-week high of 1,382 MXN and 87% above the low of 623.00 MXN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 896.15 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 1,165 MXN, calculated fair value 896.15 MXN (−23%), Quality Score 41/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VISTAA calculated?
We run Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 896.15 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 1,165 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 896.15 MXN, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (616.49 MXN to 1,738 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
The market capitalisation of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 121B MXN (≈ $6.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 2.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Earnings per share at Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V are 137.41 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
The net margin of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 29.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 29.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
The operating margin of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is 44.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Revenue at Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is growing +102% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA)?
Earnings per share at Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V are growing +29.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA) generate?
The free cash flow of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is −$671M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V (VISTAA) carry?
The net debt of Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026