Valeura Energy Inc (VLE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Valeura Energy Inc stock C$9.92, price C$14.17, that is 30.0% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.4200 – C$17.33 · fair‑value band C$7.44 – C$12.40 · the C$14.17 price screens above the C$9.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Valeura Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an upstream oil and gas company in Thailand and Turkey. It engages in the exploration, appraisal, development, and production of petroleum and onshore natural gas. The company is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Valeura Energy Inc (VLE) currently trades at C$14.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.92, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$16.04 per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$14.17 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at C$3.32, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$7.44 (bear) to C$12.40 (bull), the price of C$14.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Valeura Energy Inc reported revenue of $614M in FY2025 versus $3.1M in FY2021, a compound +274.4%/yr. Reported net income was $23.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$1.5B (≈ $1.1B) Small · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) C$0.8000 · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 48.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 128% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, VLE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$7.44Fair Value C$9.92BullC$12.40
Price C$14.17 · Downside -30.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.6860 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+135.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +44.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.3% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (27 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside−30.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)48.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)101.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.74× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.21× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA3.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valeura Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLE
Frequently asked questions
Is Valeura Energy Inc (VLE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$9.92 versus a price of C$14.17, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VLE?
Our model-based fair value for Valeura Energy Inc is C$9.92 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$14.17.
What is the quality score of VLE?
Valeura Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$9.92 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$7.44, optimistic scenario C$12.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valeura Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$9.92, about 30% lower versus a price of C$14.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$7.44, optimistic scenario C$12.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Valeura Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$674M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valeura Energy Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +135.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VLE use?
Our models discount Valeura Energy Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valeura Energy Inc that is +6.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valeura Energy Inc (VLE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Valeura Energy Inc grew +135.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valeura Energy Inc (+6.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.68 %: that much free cash flow Valeura Energy Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valeura Energy Inc it is C$9.92 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of C$14.17. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Valeura Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, VLE trades above its calculated fair value: price C$14.17, fair value C$9.92, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$14.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$9.92). For Valeura Energy Inc the two are C$4.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valeura Energy Inc worth?
The market values Valeura Energy Inc at about C$1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is C$14.17; our models calculate a fair value of C$9.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLE?
Our models span a range for Valeura Energy Inc: cautious scenario C$7.44, base C$9.92, optimistic C$12.40 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price C$14.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VLE?
Valeura Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$9.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valeura Energy Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 10.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLE from its 52-week high?
Valeura Energy Inc trades at C$14.17, about 18% below its 52-week high of C$17.33 and 128% above the low of C$6.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$9.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valeura Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valeura Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price C$14.17, calculated fair value C$9.92 (−30%), Quality Score 46/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLE calculated?
We run Valeura Energy Inc through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$9.92 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Valeura Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$14.17. Our model-based fair value is C$9.92, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valeura Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$12.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Valeura Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The market capitalisation of Valeura Energy Inc is C$1.5B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valeura Energy Inc is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Earnings per share at Valeura Energy Inc are C$0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The net margin of Valeura Energy Inc is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valeura Energy Inc is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valeura Energy Inc is 26.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
The operating margin of Valeura Energy Inc is 48.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Revenue at Valeura Energy Inc is growing +101% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,104%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valeura Energy Inc (VLE)?
Earnings per share at Valeura Energy Inc are growing +880% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Valeura Energy Inc (VLE) hold?
Valeura Energy Inc holds more cash than debt, C$190M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026