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Vonovia SE (VNA) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · DE · Market cap €18.3B

VS Vonovia SE VNA · XETRA
Price€20.74
Fair Value€36.67
Upside+76.8%
Quality49/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 57.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.84% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: Medium Range €28.60 – €47.66 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 20 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from €36.76 to €36.67 (−0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −7.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 77% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€28.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€45.27 €13.08 Fair Value €36.67 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €13.08 – €45.27 · fair‑value band €28.60 – €47.66 · the €20.74 price screens below the €36.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Vonovia SE (VNA) currently trades at €20.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €36.67, implying the stock looks roughly 76.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Vonovia SE generated revenue of €5.9B at a net margin of 57.9%. Revenue declined 33.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.6%. Net debt stands at €40.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €28.60 (bear case) to €47.66 (bull case); at €20.74, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at 77%, VNA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €10.52 80
Residual Income €31.19 €39.65 €103.92 76
Gordon GGM €7.00 €14.56 €23.10 70
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €12.21 38
Owner Earnings €14.65 €53.65 €117.83 31
5Y EBITDA Exit €17.87 41
5Y P/E Exit €4.85 €44.89 €89.55 38
10Y EBITDA Exit €14.83 37
10Y P/E Exit €27.87 €72.51 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €29.84 €118.85 €161.51 54
Lynch FV €29.49 €42.13 €54.76 50
PEG = 1.0 €29.49 €42.13 €54.76 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €7.00 €14.56 €23.10 70
DDM Multi-Stage €7.00 €12.28 €15.28 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €65.82 €87.76 €109.70 63
P/S Multiple €11.00 €14.67 €18.33 58
P/B Multiple €55.95 €74.60 €93.25 55
EV/EBIT €5.94 53
EV/EBITDA €2.67 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €16.19 €21.69 €32.37 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €10.52 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income €31.19 €39.65 €103.92 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €50.52 €72.18 €93.83 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€74.60) versus Dividend Discount (€12.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €5.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) -33.8%
Net margin 57.9%
Return on equity 12.6%
Free cash flow €1.3B FY2025
P/E ratio 5.4
More key figures
Operating margin 43.3%
EPS (TTM) €3.97
Dividend yield 5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -58.3%
Net debt €40.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments.

Full company description

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments. It offers property management services; property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, multimedia, energy supply, metering, condominium administration, and insurance services. The company is also involved in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities to build new homes. In addition, it engages in construction of owner-occupied and rented apartments; sale of projects to investors; and construction of new properties on existing land held in the portfolio. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and incorporated in October 10th, 2017 is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Vonovia SE reported revenue of €5.0B in FY2025 versus €3.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.7B in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€5.0B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+17.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+15.3%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+10.5%
Revenue +8.3%/yr
FY21 €3.6B
FY22 €5.2B
FY23 €5.2B
FY24 €5.9B
FY25 €5.0B
Net income +8.6%/yr
FY21 €2.7B
FY22 −€669M
FY23 −€6.3B
FY24 −€896M
FY25 €3.7B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vonovia SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VNA

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 522 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +77% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Above median
Revenue growth -34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.40× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.56× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 24.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 14.75× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 40
FUTURE 0 · sector 10
PAST 50 · sector 16
HEALTH 30 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 223,000 VND 25,731 VND -88%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$44.76 HK$18.03 -60%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$23.90 HK$18.75 -22%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 3,725 CLP 5,571 CLP +50%
SAGAA SAGAA kr 170.00 kr 75.55 -56%
Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS 2,324 CLP 2,976 CLP +28%
PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR 372.00 IDR 1,208 IDR +225%
PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI 20,975 IDR 19,160 IDR -9%
PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK 3,530 IDR 3,464 IDR -2%
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA 2,495 ARS 3,998 ARS +60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vonovia SE (VNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €36.67 versus a price of €20.74, about +77% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VNA?
Our model-based fair value for Vonovia SE is €36.67 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €20.74.
What is the quality score of VNA?
Vonovia SE has a Quality Score of 49/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Vonovia SE (VNA)?
Vonovia SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.9B (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VNA?
The net profit margin of Vonovia SE is about 57.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 57.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Vonovia SE pay a dividend?
Vonovia SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.77% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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