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Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Koninklijke Vopak N.V $34.25, price $55.35, upside -38.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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KV
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Koninklijke Vopak N.V
VOPKF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $34.25 · Strongly overvalued (−38.1%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 44.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 73/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.89 – $55.35 · fair‑value band $23.45 – $48.31 · the $55.35 price screens above the $34.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Koninklijke Vopak N.V., an independent tank storage company, stores and handles liquid chemicals, gases, and oil products to the energy and manufacturing markets worldwide. It operates gas, industrial, chemical, and oil terminals and owns and operates facilities consisting of tanks, jetties, truck loading stations, and pipelines.
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Koninklijke Vopak N.V., an independent tank storage company, stores and handles liquid chemicals, gases, and oil products to the energy and manufacturing markets worldwide. It operates gas, industrial, chemical, and oil terminals and owns and operates facilities consisting of tanks, jetties, truck loading stations, and pipelines. The company also stores and handles chemicals, such as methanol, xylenes, styrene, alpha olefins, and mono-ethylene glycol; gas, including liquefied natural gas, liquid petroleum gas, ethylene, butadiene, and ammonia; oil products consisting of crude oil, fuel oil, diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, and naphtha; and vegoils and biofuels comprising ethanol, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it is involved in the development of infrastructure solutions for hydrogen, ammonia, CO2, battery energy storage, and low-carbon fuels and feedstocks. It serves producers, manufacturers, distributors, governments, and traders. The company was founded in 1616 and is based in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Koninklijke Vopak N.V. operates as a subsidiary of HAL Trust.
Stock analysis
Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) currently trades at $55.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.25, 38.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $64.00 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the $55.35 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.76, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.45 (bear) to $48.31 (bull), the price of $55.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Koninklijke Vopak N.V reported revenue of €1.3B in FY2025 versus €1.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was €604M in FY2025, compounding +29.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 4.24 · EPS (TTM) $5.96 · Net margin 46.5% · Return on equity 19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin 30.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −38%, VOPKF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.45
Fair Value $34.25
Bull $48.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.51 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$31.04
$47.78
$79.86
79
Growth DCF
$32.95
$49.19
$77.72
77
Residual Income
$35.96
$43.06
$57.63
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$31.04
$47.78
$79.86
79
Owner Earnings
$43.80
$64.80
$105.07
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$6.69
$12.09
$20.19
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$16.78
$29.28
$46.40
73
5Y P/E Exit
$33.21
$57.31
$86.88
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$15.81
$21.47
$27.15
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$22.11
$32.34
$43.23
69
10Y P/E Exit
$31.94
$50.06
$68.07
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$40.33
$60.89
$72.41
67
EPV
$7.57
$11.76
$15.38
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$15.98
$18.38
$21.18
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$15.98
$20.60
$26.34
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$62.27
$83.03
$103.79
63
P/S Multiple
$11.48
$15.30
$19.13
58
P/B Multiple
$43.29
$57.72
$72.15
55
EV/EBIT
$9.14
$18.51
$27.88
63
EV/EBITDA
$11.82
$22.09
$32.35
64
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.9300
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$16.03
$21.49
$32.07
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$32.95
$49.19
$77.72
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$6.69
$13.27
$22.28
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$35.96
$43.06
$57.63
76
ROIC Compounder
$7.57
$11.76
$15.38
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$44.80
$64.00
$83.20
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.6% vs 9.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 55% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.4%
VOPKF screens overvalued: fair value 38% below the price. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $46.97 | $36.91 | −21% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $68.98 | $11.72 | −83% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $36.65 | $24.66 | −33% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $20.10 | $15.29 | −24% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $30.63 | $28.16 | −8% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | $58.78 | $24.51 | −58% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $277.84 | $65.24 | −77% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.66 | $70.77 | +23% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $88.62 | $80.15 | −10% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $267.29 | $294.02 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.25 versus a price of $55.35, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VOPKF?
Our model-based fair value for Koninklijke Vopak N.V is $34.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.35.
What is the quality score of VOPKF?
Koninklijke Vopak N.V has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.45, optimistic scenario $48.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koninklijke Vopak N.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.25, about −38% upside versus a price of $55.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.45, optimistic scenario $48.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
Koninklijke Vopak N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Koninklijke Vopak N.V would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VOPKF use?
Our models discount Koninklijke Vopak N.V at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Koninklijke Vopak N.V that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Koninklijke Vopak N.V grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Koninklijke Vopak N.V (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.72 %: that much free cash flow Koninklijke Vopak N.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koninklijke Vopak N.V it is $34.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $55.35. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Koninklijke Vopak N.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VOPKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.35, fair value $34.25, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VOPKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.25). For Koninklijke Vopak N.V the two are $21.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koninklijke Vopak N.V worth?
The market values Koninklijke Vopak N.V at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $55.35; our models calculate a fair value of $34.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VOPKF?
Our models span a range for Koninklijke Vopak N.V: cautious scenario $23.45, base $34.25, optimistic $48.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $55.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VOPKF from its 52-week high?
Koninklijke Vopak N.V trades at $55.35, at its 52-week high of $55.35 and 35% above the low of $41.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koninklijke Vopak N.V?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koninklijke Vopak N.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $55.35, calculated fair value $34.25 (−38%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VOPKF calculated?
We run Koninklijke Vopak N.V through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Koninklijke Vopak N.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $55.35. Our model-based fair value is $34.25, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koninklijke Vopak N.V right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($48.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($23.45 to $48.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) come from?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Vopak N.V grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Koninklijke Vopak N.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The market capitalisation of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is 9.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is 4.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Vopak N.V are $5.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The net margin of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is 46.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
The operating margin of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
Revenue at Koninklijke Vopak N.V is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke Vopak N.V are growing −12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Koninklijke Vopak N.V (VOPKF) carry?
The net debt of Koninklijke Vopak N.V is €2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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