Varonis Systems, Inc (VRNS) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $5.2B
Varonis Systems, Inc
VRNS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.35 to $12.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.01 – $73.41 · fair‑value band $5.35 – $12.27 · the $43.52 price screens above the $8.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Varonis Systems, Inc (VRNS) currently trades at $43.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.81, implying the stock looks roughly 79.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Varonis Systems, Inc generated revenue of $660M at a net margin of -19.8%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.8%. Net debt stands at $369M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.35 (bear case) to $12.27 (bull case); at $43.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 121% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -80%, VRNS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($33.54) versus Asset-Based ($3.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Varonis Systems, Inc. provides software products and services that continuously discover and classify critical data, remediate exposures, and detect advanced threats with AI-powered technology in North America, Europe, APAC, and rest of worlds.
Full company description
Varonis Systems, Inc. provides software products and services that continuously discover and classify critical data, remediate exposures, and detect advanced threats with AI-powered technology in North America, Europe, APAC, and rest of worlds. The company offers Varonis Data Security Platform, a Software-as-a-Service solution which includes Data security posture management, Data access intelligence, Data discovery & classification, Discovery policy library, least privilege automation, Data activity monitoring, Data detection and response, and User & entity behavior analytics. It also provides Protection Packages, such as Microsoft 365, Windows & NAS, Hybrid, and Cloud Environments, as well as Database and Email Security Capabilities and On-Premises Subscription Products. It serves the financial services, public, healthcare, industrial, insurance, energy and utilities, technology, construction and engineering, education, and consumer and retail industries. Varonis Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Varonis Systems, Inc reported revenue of $624M in FY2025 versus $390M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$129M in FY2025.
VRNS screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Varonis Introduces Agent Intent-Based Access Control
- Why Varonis Systems (VRNS) Stock Is Down Today
- Varonis Q2 Earnings Surpass Expectations, Revenues Rise Y/Y
- Varonis Systems Inc (VRNS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong SaaS Growth Amid Market ...
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 86/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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