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Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vestas Wind Systems A/S €15.65, price €26.48, upside -40.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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VW
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
VWSB · XETRAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value €15.65 · Strongly overvalued (−40.9%)
!Quality 57/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.4% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 48/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.05 – €37.56 · fair‑value band €11.99 – €19.31 · the €26.48 price screens above the €15.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Vestas Wind Systems A/S engages in the design, manufacture, installation, and services of wind turbines the United States, Denmark, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Power Solutions and Service. The Power Solutions segment offers onshore and offshore wind power plants, wind turbines, development sites, etc.
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Vestas Wind Systems A/S engages in the design, manufacture, installation, and services of wind turbines the United States, Denmark, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Power Solutions and Service. The Power Solutions segment offers onshore and offshore wind power plants, wind turbines, development sites, etc. The Service segment engages in the sale of service contracts, spare parts, and related activities. Vestas Wind Systems A/S was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Aarhus, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) currently trades at €26.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.65, 40.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €26.51 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the €26.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.64, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €11.99 (bear) to €19.31 (bull), the price of €26.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S reported revenue of €18.8B in FY2025 versus €15.6B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €776M in FY2025, compounding +55.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €26.6B · P/E ratio 31.2 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) €0.8500 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 23.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −41%, VWSB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €11.99
Fair Value €15.65
Bull €19.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5671 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€23.56
€36.57
€57.62
79
Growth DCF
€23.69
€36.30
€56.56
77
Owner Earnings
€17.50
€26.51
€41.07
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€23.56
€36.57
€57.62
79
Owner Earnings
€17.50
€26.51
€41.07
76
5Y Revenue Exit
€15.55
€21.33
€28.62
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
€21.69
€33.31
€47.20
75
5Y P/E Exit
€18.00
€26.10
€34.81
71
10Y Revenue Exit
€17.93
€24.08
€32.38
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
€22.16
€32.60
€47.15
68
10Y P/E Exit
€19.77
€27.47
€37.30
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€5.38
€20.33
€27.51
64
Lynch FV
€4.92
€7.03
€9.14
61
PEG = 1.0
€4.92
€7.03
€9.14
57
EPV
€9.61
€10.56
€11.39
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€0.6900
€1.44
€2.28
66
DDM Multi-Stage
€0.6900
€1.21
€1.51
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€12.46
€16.61
€20.76
63
P/S Multiple
€10.08
€13.45
€16.81
58
P/B Multiple
€10.08
€13.45
€16.81
55
EV/EBIT
€14.89
€18.55
€22.20
66
EV/EBITDA
€22.53
€28.73
€34.94
67
EV/Revenue
€11.75
€15.11
€18.46
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€1.97
€2.64
€3.93
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€23.69
€36.30
€56.56
77
Rev-Margin DCF
€15.55
€21.47
€28.72
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€4.97
€6.54
€11.32
73
ROIC Compounder
€9.61
€10.57
€11.40
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€9.02
€12.89
€16.76
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Profitability
39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+24.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.7% vs 2.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
2025 sits 171% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.8% a year for the price and +5.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%
VWSB screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Cummins Inc CMI | $516.57 | $359.11 | −30% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $250.74 | $125.77 | −50% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $442.45 | $139.31 | −69% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 362.00 | kr 193.59 | −47% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €15.65 versus a price of €26.48, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VWSB?
Our model-based fair value for Vestas Wind Systems A/S is €15.65 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €26.48.
What is the quality score of VWSB?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €15.65 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.99, optimistic scenario €19.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €15.65, about −41% upside versus a price of €26.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €11.99, optimistic scenario €19.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Vestas Wind Systems A/S pay a dividend?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vestas Wind Systems A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VWSB use?
Our models discount Vestas Wind Systems A/S at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vestas Wind Systems A/S that is +3.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vestas Wind Systems A/S grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vestas Wind Systems A/S (+3.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.57 %: that much free cash flow Vestas Wind Systems A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vestas Wind Systems A/S it is €15.65 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €26.48. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, VWSB trades above its calculated fair value: price €26.48, fair value €15.65, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VWSB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€26.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€15.65). For Vestas Wind Systems A/S the two are €10.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vestas Wind Systems A/S worth?
The market values Vestas Wind Systems A/S at about €26.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €26.48; our models calculate a fair value of €15.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VWSB?
Our models span a range for Vestas Wind Systems A/S: cautious scenario €11.99, base €15.65, optimistic €19.31 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €26.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VWSB from its 52-week high?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S trades at €26.48, about 9% below its 52-week high of €29.22 and 65% above the low of €16.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €15.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vestas Wind Systems A/S?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €26.48, calculated fair value €15.65 (−41%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VWSB calculated?
We run Vestas Wind Systems A/S through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €15.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vestas Wind Systems A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €26.48. Our model-based fair value is €15.65, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vestas Wind Systems A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€19.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) come from?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S grew −3.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin −11.7 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vestas Wind Systems A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The market capitalisation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is €26.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 31.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 1.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S are €0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The dividend yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.4% (payout 11.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The net margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
The operating margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
Revenue at Vestas Wind Systems A/S is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB)?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S are growing +15.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB) hold?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S holds more cash than debt, €1.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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