Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Watsco, Inc. BRL 47.35, price BRL 63.60, upside -25.6%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$42.41 – R$120.36 · fair‑value band R$34.63 – R$61.32 · the R$63.60 price screens above the R$47.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
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Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It distributes equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment. The company also offers parts comprising replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation materials, refrigerants, ductworks, grills, registers, sheet metals, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. It serves contractors and dealers that service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. Watsco, Inc. was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock analysis
Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34) currently trades at R$63.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$47.35, 25.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$61.31 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$63.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$10.95, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$34.63 (bear) to R$61.32 (bull), the price of R$63.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Watsco, Inc. reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $6.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $497M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$81.6B (≈ $15.6B) · P/E ratio 31.3 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) R$2.53 · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.7% · Operating margin 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −26%, W1SO34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$34.63Fair Value R$47.35Bull R$61.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)18.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Watsco, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/W1SO34
Frequently asked questions
Is Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$47.35 versus a price of R$63.60, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of W1SO34?
Our model-based fair value for Watsco, Inc. is R$47.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$63.60.
What is the quality score of W1SO34?
Watsco, Inc. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$47.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$34.63, optimistic scenario R$61.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Watsco, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$47.35, about −26% upside versus a price of R$63.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$34.63, optimistic scenario R$61.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Watsco, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Watsco, Inc. it is R$47.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$63.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Watsco, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, W1SO34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$63.60, fair value R$47.35, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of W1SO34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$63.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$47.35). For Watsco, Inc. the two are R$16.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Watsco, Inc. worth?
The market values Watsco, Inc. at about R$81.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$63.60; our models calculate a fair value of R$47.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about W1SO34?
Our models span a range for Watsco, Inc.: cautious scenario R$34.63, base R$47.35, optimistic R$61.32 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$63.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of W1SO34?
Watsco, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$47.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5.
What is the PEG ratio of W1SO34?
The PEG ratio of Watsco, Inc. is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Watsco, Inc. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 18.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is W1SO34 from its 52-week high?
Watsco, Inc. trades at R$63.60, about 29% below its 52-week high of R$89.46 and at the low of R$63.60 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$47.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Watsco, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Watsco, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$63.60, calculated fair value R$47.35 (−26%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of W1SO34 calculated?
We run Watsco, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$47.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Watsco, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$63.60. Our model-based fair value is R$47.35, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Watsco, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$61.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Watsco, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
The market capitalisation of Watsco, Inc. is R$81.6B (≈ $15.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Watsco, Inc. is 2.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Earnings per share at Watsco, Inc. are R$2.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
The net margin of Watsco, Inc. is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Watsco, Inc. is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Watsco, Inc. is 19.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
The operating margin of Watsco, Inc. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Revenue at Watsco, Inc. is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34)?
Earnings per share at Watsco, Inc. are growing −3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34) generate?
The free cash flow of Watsco, Inc. is $535M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Watsco, Inc. (W1SO34) carry?
The net debt of Watsco, Inc. is $55.2M (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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