Waga Energy SA (WAGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Waga Energy SA €2.59, price €22.25, upside -88.4%, quality 16 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range €8.66 – €38.30 · fair‑value band €1.93 – €3.86 · the €22.25 price screens above the €2.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Waga Energy SA, together with its subsidiaries, develops and produces biomethane from landfill gas for the renewable natural gas industry worldwide. It also operates Wagabox units, which are small refineries or gas plants installed in landfills. Waga Energy SA was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Eybens, France.
Stock analysis
Waga Energy SA (WAGA) currently trades at €22.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.59, 88.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: €1.93 (bear) to €3.86 (bull), the price of €22.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Waga Energy SA reported revenue of €59.6M in FY2025 versus €12.3M in FY2021, a compound +48.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€30.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €606M · P/S ratio 10.4 · EPS (TTM) €−1.35 · Net margin −50.9% · Return on equity −24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.3% · Operating margin −11.8% · Revenue (TTM) €59.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −88%, WAGA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.93Fair Value €2.59Bull €3.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.7% (2020) → −20.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 793 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−88.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−50.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B6.18× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)11.44× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)36· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)11· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Waga Energy SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WAGA
Frequently asked questions
Is Waga Energy SA (WAGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.59 versus a price of €22.25, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WAGA?
Our model-based fair value for Waga Energy SA is €2.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.25.
What is the quality score of WAGA?
Waga Energy SA has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.93, optimistic scenario €3.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Waga Energy SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.59, about −88% upside versus a price of €22.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.93, optimistic scenario €3.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
Waga Energy SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €59.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Waga Energy SA it is €2.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €22.25. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Waga Energy SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WAGA trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.25, fair value €2.59, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.59). For Waga Energy SA the two are €19.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Waga Energy SA worth?
The market values Waga Energy SA at about €606M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €22.25; our models calculate a fair value of €2.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAGA?
Our models span a range for Waga Energy SA: cautious scenario €1.93, base €2.59, optimistic €3.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €22.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Waga Energy SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −24.0%, debt of 1.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAGA from its 52-week high?
Waga Energy SA trades at €22.25, about 9% below its 52-week high of €24.50 and 3% above the low of €21.55 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Waga Energy SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Waga Energy SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €22.25, calculated fair value €2.59 (−88%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAGA calculated?
We run Waga Energy SA through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Waga Energy SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €22.25. Our model-based fair value is €2.59, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Waga Energy SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€1.93 to €3.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Waga Energy SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
The market capitalisation of Waga Energy SA is €606M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Waga Energy SA is 10.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
Earnings per share at Waga Energy SA are €−1.35. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
The net margin of Waga Energy SA is −50.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Waga Energy SA is −24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Waga Energy SA is −4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
The operating margin of Waga Energy SA is −11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Waga Energy SA (WAGA)?
Revenue at Waga Energy SA is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Waga Energy SA (WAGA) generate?
The free cash flow of Waga Energy SA is −€115M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Waga Energy SA (WAGA) carry?
The net debt of Waga Energy SA is €162M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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