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Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Western Alliance Bancorporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US9576381092

WA Western Alliance Bancorporation logo Broad data Sep 18, 2026

Western Alliance Bancorporation

WAL · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $72.92 · Fairly valued (−7%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +31.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.03% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on valuation: 24 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$110.73 $16.84 Fair Value $72.92 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.84 – $110.73 · fair‑value band $62.85 – $116.27 · the $78.65 price screens above the $72.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Western Alliance Bancorporation operates as the bank holding company for Western Alliance Bank that provides various banking products and related services primarily in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It operates through Commercial and Consumer Related segments.

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Western Alliance Bancorporation operates as the bank holding company for Western Alliance Bank that provides various banking products and related services primarily in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It operates through Commercial and Consumer Related segments. The company offers deposit products, including demand deposit, checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as fixed-rate and fixed maturity certificates of deposit accounts; treasury management products and services to small and middle-market businesses, specialized banking services to sophisticated commercial institutions and investors; and residential mortgage products and services. It also provides commercial and industrial loan products, such as working capital lines of credit, loans to technology companies, inventory and accounts receivable lines, mortgage warehouse lines, equipment loans and leases, and other commercial loans; commercial real estate loans, which are secured by multifamily residential properties, professional offices, industrial facilities, retail centers, hotels, and other commercial properties; construction and land development loans for single family and multifamily residential projects, industrial/warehouse properties, office buildings, retail centers, medical office facilities, and residential lot developments; and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers other financial services, such as internet banking, wire transfers, electronic bill payment and presentment, funds transfer and other digital payment offerings, lock box services, courier, and cash management services. Further, the company holds certain investment securities, municipal and non-profit loans, and leases; invests primarily in low-income housing tax credits and small business investment corporations; and certain real estate loans and related securities. Western Alliance Bancorporation was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock analysis

Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) currently trades at $78.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $72.92, implying the stock looks roughly 7.9% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $98.13 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $78.65 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $25.60, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $62.85 (bear) to $116.27 (bull), the price of $78.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Western Alliance Bancorporation reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +30.1%/yr. Reported net income was $969M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $8.6B · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 1.68 · EPS (TTM) $8.59 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −7%, WAL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $62.85 Fair Value $72.92 Bull $116.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.07 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $64.94 $78.23 $175.34 70
Gordon GGM $14.86 $29.62 $44.85 67
DDM Multi-Stage $14.86 $25.60 $31.27 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $14.86 $29.62 $44.85 67
DDM Multi-Stage $14.86 $25.60 $31.27 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $86.53 $115.37 $144.22 63
P/B Multiple $73.60 $98.13 $122.66 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $35.05 $46.96 $70.09 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $64.94 $78.23 $175.34 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.6%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.47% → 23%

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +15% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 28% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.83× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.72× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.47× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)24 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)52 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)59 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)41 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19 20.20 THB 6.69 THB −67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.35 HK$78.59 +53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.74 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.16 $15.60 −33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €102.32 €105.99 +4%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.92 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.15 $9.67 −13%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,359 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $231.49 $159.52 −31%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.28 SGD 19.80 SGD −37%

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Western Alliance Bancorporation · Fair Value
$72.92 −8%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Western Alliance Bancorporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WAL

Frequently asked questions

Is Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $72.92 versus a price of $78.65, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WAL?
Our model-based fair value for Western Alliance Bancorporation is $72.92 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $78.65.
What is the quality score of WAL?
Western Alliance Bancorporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $72.92 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $62.85, optimistic scenario $116.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Western Alliance Bancorporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $72.92, about −7% upside versus a price of $78.65 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $62.85, optimistic scenario $116.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Western Alliance Bancorporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Western Alliance Bancorporation pay a dividend?
Western Alliance Bancorporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Western Alliance Bancorporation it is $72.92 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $78.65. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Western Alliance Bancorporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, WAL trades above its calculated fair value: price $78.65, fair value $72.92, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($78.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($72.92). For Western Alliance Bancorporation the two are $5.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Western Alliance Bancorporation worth?
The market values Western Alliance Bancorporation at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $78.65; our models calculate a fair value of $72.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAL?
Our models span a range for Western Alliance Bancorporation: cautious scenario $62.85, base $72.92, optimistic $116.27 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $78.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WAL?
Western Alliance Bancorporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $72.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of WAL?
The PEG ratio of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 1.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Western Alliance Bancorporation (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 13.0%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAL from its 52-week high?
Western Alliance Bancorporation trades at $78.65, about 18% below its 52-week high of $96.24 and 20% above the low of $65.45 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $72.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Western Alliance Bancorporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Western Alliance Bancorporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $78.65, calculated fair value $72.92 (−7%), Quality Score 40/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAL calculated?
We run Western Alliance Bancorporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $72.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Western Alliance Bancorporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $78.65. Our model-based fair value is $72.92, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Western Alliance Bancorporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($62.85 to $116.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) come from?
Earnings per share at Western Alliance Bancorporation grew +15.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.7 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Western Alliance Bancorporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The market capitalisation of Western Alliance Bancorporation is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 1.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Earnings per share at Western Alliance Bancorporation are $8.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The dividend yield of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 2.0% (payout 18.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The net margin of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 18.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
The operating margin of Western Alliance Bancorporation is 31.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Revenue at Western Alliance Bancorporation is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)?
Earnings per share at Western Alliance Bancorporation are growing −7.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) generate?
The free cash flow of Western Alliance Bancorporation is −$2.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) carry?
The net debt of Western Alliance Bancorporation is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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