EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited $2.64, price $2.47, upside +6.9%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · US · ISIN HK0004000045

TW The Wharf (Holdings) Limited logo Broad data Oct 3, 2026

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited

WARFF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $2.64 · Fairly valued (+6.9%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −12.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓16.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 41/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$6.66 $1.30 Fair Value $2.64 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.30 – $6.66 · fair‑value band $1.91 – $3.65 · the $2.47 price screens below the $2.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow).

Show more

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow). With a proven track record in management and execution, the Group's businesses comprise Investment Properties, Development Properties and Hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Other businesses include Logistics Infrastructure through Modern Terminals and Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals. In Hong Kong, the Group's exclusive Peak Portfolio, comprising a rare collection of unique properties, features the highest bespoke quality and craftsmanship catering to the demands of a privileged and discerning clientele. As at the end of 2024, the Group's attributable land bank in Hong Kong was about 2.8 million square feet, of which about 550,000 square feet on The Peak. The Group's Mainland China Investment Properties are led by the International Finance Squares (IFS) at the very heart of CBD in select cities. IFS developments in Chengdu and Changsha have become trendsetting landmarks with unrivalled location, superior planning and design, retailer and shopper critical mass and top-notch management. The Mainland China Development Properties land bank further depleted to 1.2 million square meters at the end of 2024. The bulk of unsold stocks are commercial properties in grossly over-supplied markets. Wharf Hotels operates 16 hotels across Hong Kong, Mainland China and the Philippines under three brands " Niccolo, Marco Polo and Maqo. The Group wholly owns four of these properties and holds 50% stake in another. In June 2024, a third hotel owned by the Group at Changsha IFS opened under a park Hyatt flag. The Group also owns and operates Modern Terminals, which operates container terminals in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, and is a founding partner in Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals. Both have been key components for Hong Kong's success as an internati

Stock analysis

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF) currently trades at $2.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.64, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.4%).

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.10 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the $2.47 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.4900, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $1.91 (bear) to $3.65 (bull), the price of $2.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of HK$11.0B in FY2025 versus HK$22.4B in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$50.0M in FY2025, compounding −69.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $9.1B · P/S ratio 0.83 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin 45.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$11.0B · Revenue growth (YoY) +4.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 7%, WARFF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.91 Fair Value $2.64 Bull $3.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $1.75 $2.32 $3.35 81
Growth DCF $1.82 $2.37 $3.28 79
Residual Income $4.03 $3.72 $3.48 76
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.75 $2.32 $3.35 81
5Y Revenue Exit $1.73 $2.44 $3.48 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.20 $3.26 $4.67 75
10Y Revenue Exit $1.68 $2.21 $2.77 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.01 $2.70 $3.45 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.4500 $0.4900 $0.5500 69
DDM Multi-Stage $0.4500 $0.5500 $0.7000 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple $0.0300 $0.0400 $0.0400 58
P/B Multiple $0.0300 $0.0400 $0.0400 55
EV/EBIT $3.21 $4.21 $5.22 66
EV/EBITDA $2.89 $3.80 $4.70 67
EV/Revenue $1.85 $2.56 $3.28 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.06 $4.10 $6.12 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.82 $2.37 $3.28 79
Rev-Margin DCF $1.73 $2.48 $3.40 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.03 $3.72 $3.48 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when WARFF reaches fair value

Put WARFF on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.8% vs −33.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2016 to 2021 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 38%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Watch WARFF, get fair value alerts →

Compare The Wharf (Holdings) Limited with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$28.64 HK$71.60 +150%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$45.90 HK$71.49 +56%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹658.40 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$9.94 HK$7.28 −27%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.77 ¥5.87 +2%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Real Estate stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited · Fair Value
$2.64 +6%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Wharf (Holdings) Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WARFF

Frequently asked questions

Is The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.64 versus a price of $2.47, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WARFF?
Our model-based fair value for The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is $2.64 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.47.
What is the quality score of WARFF?
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.64 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.91, optimistic scenario $3.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Wharf (Holdings) Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.64, about +7% upside versus a price of $2.47 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1.91, optimistic scenario $3.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$11.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Wharf (Holdings) Limited it is $2.64 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $2.47. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Wharf (Holdings) Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, WARFF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.47, fair value $2.64, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WARFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.64). For The Wharf (Holdings) Limited the two are $0.1700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Wharf (Holdings) Limited worth?
The market values The Wharf (Holdings) Limited at about $9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $2.47; our models calculate a fair value of $2.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WARFF?
Our models span a range for The Wharf (Holdings) Limited: cautious scenario $1.91, base $2.64, optimistic $3.65 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $2.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to The Wharf (Holdings) Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Wharf (Holdings) Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $2.47, calculated fair value $2.64 (+7%), Quality Score 69/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WARFF calculated?
We run The Wharf (Holdings) Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Wharf (Holdings) Limited currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.47. Our model-based fair value is $2.64, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Wharf (Holdings) Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($1.91 to $3.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF) come from?
Earnings per share at The Wharf (Holdings) Limited grew −30.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.0 %, EBIT margin +0.3 %, tax rate −6.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −22.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The market capitalisation of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is $9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The net margin of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
The operating margin of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is 45.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
Revenue at The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF)?
Earnings per share at The Wharf (Holdings) Limited are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF) generate?
The free cash flow of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited is HK$3.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (WARFF) hold?
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$2.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed

Continue in the live analysis

Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Open the live analysis →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.