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Waste Management, Inc. (WAST) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Waste Management, Inc. C$21.57, price C$19.30, upside +11.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · CA

WM Some data Sep 29, 2026

Waste Management, Inc.

WAST · NEO

UndervaluedQuality growthThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value C$21.57 · Undervalued (+11.8%)
!Quality 56/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +8.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓16.7% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (8/11)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$23.34 C$18.61 Fair Value C$21.57 May 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

17‑month range C$18.61 – C$23.34 · fair‑value band C$11.75 – C$31.68 · the C$19.30 price screens below the C$21.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally.

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Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that includes the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

Waste Management, Inc. (WAST) currently trades at C$19.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$21.57, implying the stock looks roughly 10.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$11.40 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$19.30 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$5.41, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: C$11.75 (bear) to C$31.68 (bull), the price of C$19.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Waste Management, Inc. reported revenue of $25.2B in FY2025 versus $19.7B in FY2022, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap C$121B (≈ $84.7B) · P/E ratio 31.0 · P/S ratio 3.33 · EPS (TTM) C$0.6100 · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 29.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% · Operating margin 18.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 12%, WAST screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$11.75 Fair Value C$21.57 Bull C$31.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$5.24 C$12.68 C$24.91 72
EPV C$3.14 C$4.57 C$5.82 71
Growth DCF C$5.28 C$12.39 C$23.96 70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$5.24 C$12.68 C$24.91 72
Owner Earnings C$1.10 C$5.66 C$13.15 65
5Y Revenue Exit C$3.21 C$8.77 C$16.04 65
5Y EBITDA Exit C$7.72 C$17.69 C$29.85 69
5Y P/E Exit C$4.51 C$11.33 C$18.82 65
10Y Revenue Exit C$3.57 C$8.96 C$16.68 60
10Y EBITDA Exit C$6.76 C$15.35 C$27.78 62
10Y P/E Exit C$4.67 C$10.80 C$18.91 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$4.56 C$18.14 C$24.65 61
Lynch FV C$4.50 C$6.43 C$8.35 58
PEG = 1.0 C$4.50 C$6.43 C$8.35 55
EPV C$3.14 C$4.57 C$5.82 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$10.56 C$14.09 C$17.61 63
P/S Multiple C$8.55 C$11.40 C$14.25 58
P/B Multiple C$8.35 C$11.13 C$13.92 55
EV/EBIT C$9.10 C$13.95 C$18.80 65
EV/EBITDA C$10.42 C$15.71 C$21.00 66
EV/Revenue C$2.42 C$5.79 C$9.16 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$1.24 C$1.66 C$2.47 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$5.28 C$12.39 C$23.96 70
Rev-Margin DCF C$3.21 C$8.73 C$15.53 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$4.03 C$5.41 C$10.21 69
ROIC Compounder C$3.41 C$6.29 C$10.33 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$7.94 C$11.34 C$14.74 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 35
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 18%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 157 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +11.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 29.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 18.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 14.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 16.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.22× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.13× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)46 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)75 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Republic Services, Inc RSG $211.92 $128.63 −39%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN $150.66 $165.73 +10%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €30.73 €20.32 −34%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $313.04 $155.54 −50%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL $40.43 $34.29 −15%
Umicore SA UMI €21.40 €25.28 +18%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €10.72 €7.30 −32%
Casella Waste Systems, Inc CWST $82.24 $14.82 −82%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.12 ¥5.27 −14%
Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 ¥13.36 ¥20.95 +57%

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Waste Management, Inc. · Fair Value
C$21.57 +11%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Waste Management, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WAST

Frequently asked questions

Is Waste Management, Inc. (WAST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$21.57 versus a price of C$19.30, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WAST?
Our model-based fair value for Waste Management, Inc. is C$21.57 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$19.30.
What is the quality score of WAST?
Waste Management, Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$21.57 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$11.75, optimistic scenario C$31.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Waste Management, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$21.57, about +12% upside versus a price of C$19.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$11.75, optimistic scenario C$31.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Waste Management, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Waste Management, Inc. it is C$21.57 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of C$19.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Waste Management, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, WAST trades below its calculated fair value: price C$19.30, fair value C$21.57, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$19.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$21.57). For Waste Management, Inc. the two are C$2.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Waste Management, Inc. worth?
The market values Waste Management, Inc. at about C$121B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is C$19.30; our models calculate a fair value of C$21.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAST?
Our models span a range for Waste Management, Inc.: cautious scenario C$11.75, base C$21.57, optimistic C$31.68 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price C$19.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WAST?
Waste Management, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$21.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of WAST?
The PEG ratio of Waste Management, Inc. is 2.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Waste Management, Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 29.3%, debt of 2.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAST from its 52-week high?
Waste Management, Inc. trades at C$19.30, about 17% below its 52-week high of C$23.34 and 4% above the low of C$18.61 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$21.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Waste Management, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, Clean Harbors, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Waste Management, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price C$19.30, calculated fair value C$21.57 (+12%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAST calculated?
We run Waste Management, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$21.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Waste Management, Inc. currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was C$19.30. Our model-based fair value is C$21.57, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Waste Management, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$11.75 to C$31.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Waste Management, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
The market capitalisation of Waste Management, Inc. is C$121B (≈ $84.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Waste Management, Inc. is 3.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Earnings per share at Waste Management, Inc. are C$0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
The net margin of Waste Management, Inc. is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Waste Management, Inc. is 29.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Waste Management, Inc. is 10.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
The operating margin of Waste Management, Inc. is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Revenue at Waste Management, Inc. is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Waste Management, Inc. (WAST)?
Earnings per share at Waste Management, Inc. are growing −20.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Waste Management, Inc. (WAST) generate?
The free cash flow of Waste Management, Inc. is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Waste Management, Inc. (WAST) carry?
The net debt of Waste Management, Inc. is $22.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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