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Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Western Forest Products Inc $2.64, price $12.13, upside -78.2%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA9582112038

WF Western Forest Products Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Western Forest Products Inc

WFSTF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.64 · Strongly overvalued (−78.2%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$53.67 $0.3050 Fair Value $2.64 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3050 – $53.67 · fair‑value band $1.74 – $3.30 · the $12.13 price screens above the $2.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Western Forest Products Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated softwood forest products company in Canada, the United States, Japan, China, Europe, and internationally.

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Western Forest Products Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated softwood forest products company in Canada, the United States, Japan, China, Europe, and internationally. The company is involved in the sale of lumber and logs that include timber harvesting; sawmilling logs into specialty lumber; value-added lumber and glue-laminated timber remanufacturing; and lumber purchase and wholesaling activities. It also provides engineered products, including custom glulam, curves and arches, stock glulam, and industrial applications; decking, timber, and fencing products; siding, trim and fascia, paneling, and soffits; industrial products comprising lamstock, packaging products, treated lumber, bridge, docks, rail ties, cross arms, crane, and rig mat; and structural products, such as timbers, machine stress rated lumber, and structural framing. Western Forest Products Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF) currently trades at $12.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.64, 78.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.74 (bear) to $3.30 (bull), the price of $12.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Western Forest Products Inc reported revenue of C$987M in FY2025 versus C$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was −C$79.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $128M · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) $−7.57 · Net margin −8.1% · Return on equity −22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin −12.5% · Revenue (TTM) C$926M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −78%, WFSTF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.74 Fair Value $2.64 Bull $3.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $15.84 $21.23 $31.69 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.84 $21.23 $31.69 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.6% (2020) → −10.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

WFSTF screens overvalued: fair value 78% below the price. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 70 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −55.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −10.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −12.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −12.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −23.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.29× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.15× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $176.55 $194.21 +10%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $79.49 $103.76 +31%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$69.65 C$115.37 +66%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $74.15 $52.72 −29%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹666.45 ₹201.01 −70%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥12.02 ¥15.06 +25%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$15.71 C$4.54 −71%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$14.47 C$6.43 −56%
Greenlam Industries Limited GREENLAM ₹212.85 ₹48.51 −77%
Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group 601996 ¥2.88 ¥3.01 +5%

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Western Forest Products Inc · Fair Value
$2.64 −78%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Western Forest Products Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WFSTF

Frequently asked questions

Is Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.64 versus a price of $12.13, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WFSTF?
Our model-based fair value for Western Forest Products Inc is $2.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.13.
What is the quality score of WFSTF?
Western Forest Products Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.74, optimistic scenario $3.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Western Forest Products Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.64, about −78% upside versus a price of $12.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.74, optimistic scenario $3.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Western Forest Products Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$926M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Western Forest Products Inc it is $2.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.13. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Western Forest Products Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WFSTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.13, fair value $2.64, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WFSTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.64). For Western Forest Products Inc the two are $9.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Western Forest Products Inc worth?
The market values Western Forest Products Inc at about $128M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.13; our models calculate a fair value of $2.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WFSTF?
Our models span a range for Western Forest Products Inc: cautious scenario $1.74, base $2.64, optimistic $3.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Western Forest Products Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −22.3%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WFSTF from its 52-week high?
Western Forest Products Inc trades at $12.13, about 16% below its 52-week high of $14.40 and 65% above the low of $7.34 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Western Forest Products Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Stella-Jones Inc, Boise Cascade Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Western Forest Products Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.13, calculated fair value $2.64 (−78%), Quality Score 47/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WFSTF calculated?
We run Western Forest Products Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Western Forest Products Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.13. Our model-based fair value is $2.64, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Western Forest Products Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.74 to $3.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Western Forest Products Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
The market capitalisation of Western Forest Products Inc is $128M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Western Forest Products Inc is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Earnings per share at Western Forest Products Inc are $−7.57. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
The net margin of Western Forest Products Inc is −8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Western Forest Products Inc is −22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Western Forest Products Inc is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
The operating margin of Western Forest Products Inc is −12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Revenue at Western Forest Products Inc is growing −23.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF)?
Earnings per share at Western Forest Products Inc are growing −82.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF) generate?
The free cash flow of Western Forest Products Inc is −C$14.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Western Forest Products Inc (WFSTF) carry?
The net debt of Western Forest Products Inc is C$54.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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