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WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of WIN Metals Ltd A$0.01, price A$0.02, upside -17.7%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000172041

WM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

WIN Metals Ltd

WIN · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0140 · Overvalued (−18%)
!Quality 29/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +202.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 10 out of 100
!Weak on future: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.5557 A$0.0130 Fair Value A$0.0140 Aug 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0130 – A$0.5557 · fair‑value band A$0.0135 – A$0.0146 · the A$0.0170 price screens above the A$0.0140 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

WIN Metals Ltd operates as a mineral exploration and development company in Australia. The company explores for gold, lithium, and nickel deposits.

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WIN Metals Ltd operates as a mineral exploration and development company in Australia. The company explores for gold, lithium, and nickel deposits. Its properties include the 100% owned Mt Edwards nickel and lithium project that covers an area of 240 square kilometers located in Western Australia; the Faraday-Trainline lithium project located in Widgiemooltha, Western Australia; and Butchers Creek Gold Project located in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Widgie Nickel Limited and changed its name to WIN Metals Ltd in July 2024. WIN Metals Ltd was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) currently trades at A$0.0170, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0140, implying the stock looks roughly 21.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0135 (bear) to A$0.0146 (bull), the price of A$0.0170 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

WIN Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$1.3M in FY2025 versus A$48.2K in FY2022, a compound +202.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$33.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$16.3M (≈ $11.5M) · P/E ratio 1.6 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Return on equity −18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.6% · Operating margin −9,832% · Revenue growth (YoY) +5.7% · Free cash flow −A$5.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −18%, WIN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0135 Fair Value A$0.0140 Bull A$0.0146
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA A$0.2400 A$0.3200 A$0.4100 64
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 50
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.2400 A$0.3200 A$0.4100 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 7
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+767.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+202.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5,491.7% (2022) → −273.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

WIN screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Below median
Fair Value upside −18% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)10 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)29 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥36.66 ¥54.86 +50%

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WIN Metals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0140 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WIN Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WIN

Frequently asked questions

Is WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0140 versus a price of A$0.0170, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WIN?
Our model-based fair value for WIN Metals Ltd is A$0.0140 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0170.
What is the quality score of WIN?
WIN Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0140 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0135, optimistic scenario A$0.0146. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WIN Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0140, about −18% upside versus a price of A$0.0170 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0135, optimistic scenario A$0.0146. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WIN Metals Ltd it is A$0.0140 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0170. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is WIN Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, WIN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0170, fair value A$0.0140, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0170); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0140). For WIN Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0030 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WIN Metals Ltd worth?
The market values WIN Metals Ltd at about A$16.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0170; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0140 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WIN?
Our models span a range for WIN Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0135, base A$0.0140, optimistic A$0.0146 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0170). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WIN?
WIN Metals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.0140 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for WIN Metals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −18.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WIN from its 52-week high?
WIN Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0170, about 70% below its 52-week high of A$0.0560 and 13% above the low of A$0.0150 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0140 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WIN Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WIN Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0170, calculated fair value A$0.0140 (−18%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WIN calculated?
We run WIN Metals Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0140, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. WIN Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.0170. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0140, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WIN Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0146). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0135 to A$0.0146), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of WIN Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The market capitalisation of WIN Metals Ltd is A$16.3M (≈ $11.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Earnings per share at WIN Metals Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WIN Metals Ltd is −18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WIN Metals Ltd is −7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The operating margin of WIN Metals Ltd is −9,832% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Revenue at WIN Metals Ltd is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +202%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) generate?
The free cash flow of WIN Metals Ltd is −A$5.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) hold?
WIN Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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