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WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of WIN Metals Ltd stock A$0.01, price A$0.02, that is 32.9% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000172041

WM WIN Metals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

WIN Metals Ltd

WIN · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 33% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +202.1 %/yr in AUD)
Revenue last quarter 78% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0141 · Overvalued
Quality 34/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.5557 A$0.0130 Fair Value A$0.0141 Oct 2016 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0130 – A$0.5557 · fair‑value band A$0.0141 – A$0.0156 · the A$0.0210 price screens above the A$0.0141 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

WIN Metals Ltd operates as a mineral exploration and development company in Australia. The company explores for gold, lithium, and nickel deposits.

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Its properties include the 100% owned Mt Edwards nickel and lithium project that covers an area of 240 square kilometers located in Western Australia; the Faraday-Trainline lithium project located in Widgiemooltha, Western Australia; and Butchers Creek Gold Project located in Western Australia.

The company was formerly known as Widgie Nickel Limited and changed its name to WIN Metals Ltd in July 2024. WIN Metals Ltd was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) currently trades at A$0.0210, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0141, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0141 (bear) to A$0.0156 (bull), the price of A$0.0210 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

WIN Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$1.3M in FY2025 versus A$48.2K in FY2022, a compound +202.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.0M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$18.0M (≈ $12.4M) Micro · P/S ratio 51.5 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −24.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 8,932% · Revenue growth (YoY) −77.5% · Free cash flow −A$4.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −33%, WIN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0141 Fair Value A$0.0141 Bull A$0.0156
Price A$0.0210 · Downside -32.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 50

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 95
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 58
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 10
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 27
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 10
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+767.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+202.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5,491.7% (2022) → −273.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

WIN screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 371 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Below median
Fair Value upside −32.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −18.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −77.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 56.89× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹261.75 ₹334.17 +28% vs WIN
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 59.05 SAR 64.96 SAR +10% vs WIN
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹568.10 ₹624.91 +10% vs WIN
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥27.56 ¥30.32 +10% vs WIN
Boliden AB BOL kr 503.40 kr 464.45 −8% vs WIN
BHP Group BHP A$57.62 A$47.45 −18% vs WIN
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥33.04 ¥25.57 −23% vs WIN
Korea Zinc Company 010130 960,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −32% vs WIN
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.29 ¥6.82 −49% vs WIN
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.65 ¥4.44 −89% vs WIN

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WIN Metals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WIN Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WIN

Frequently asked questions

Is WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0141 versus a price of A$0.0210, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WIN?
Our model-based fair value for WIN Metals Ltd is A$0.0141 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0210.
What is the quality score of WIN?
WIN Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0141 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0141, optimistic scenario A$0.0156. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WIN Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0141, about 33% lower versus a price of A$0.0210 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0141, optimistic scenario A$0.0156. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WIN Metals Ltd it is A$0.0141 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.0210. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is WIN Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, WIN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0210, fair value A$0.0141, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0210); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0141). For WIN Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0069 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WIN Metals Ltd worth?
The market values WIN Metals Ltd at about A$18.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0210; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0141 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WIN?
Our models span a range for WIN Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0141, base A$0.0141, optimistic A$0.0156 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.0210). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for WIN Metals Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −24.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WIN from its 52-week high?
WIN Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0210, about 53% below its 52-week high of A$0.0450 and 40% above the low of A$0.0150 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0141 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WIN Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WIN Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.0210, calculated fair value A$0.0141 (−33%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WIN calculated?
We run WIN Metals Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0141 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. WIN Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0210. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0141, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WIN Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0156). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0141 to A$0.0156), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of WIN Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The market capitalisation of WIN Metals Ltd is A$18.0M (≈ $12.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of WIN Metals Ltd is 51.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Earnings per share at WIN Metals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WIN Metals Ltd is −24.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WIN Metals Ltd is −11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
The operating margin of WIN Metals Ltd is 8,932% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WIN Metals Ltd (WIN)?
Revenue at WIN Metals Ltd is growing −77.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +202%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) generate?
The free cash flow of WIN Metals Ltd is −A$4.3M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does WIN Metals Ltd (WIN) hold?
WIN Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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