West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 4, 2026: fair value of West Japan Railway Company $15.13, price $18.23, upside -17.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.51 – $33.25 · fair‑value band $5.77 – $28.23 · the $18.23 price screens above the $15.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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West Japan Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway operation business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Mobility, Distribution, Real Estate, Travel and Regional Solutions, and Others.
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West Japan Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway operation business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Mobility, Distribution, Real Estate, Travel and Regional Solutions, and Others. The company offers rail passenger transportation services; sells various goods through stores inside the train stations, including convenience stores, restaurants, and souvenir shops; and develops and operates shopping centers and hotels, as well as leases and sells condominiums and other properties. It is also involved in travel arrangement services, such as train reservations, issuance of hotel vouchers, and sale of package tours, as well as tourism promotion; credit cards and electronic money; construction and electrical construction; advertising; department store business; and spatial information consulting. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Kita, Japan.
Stock analysis
West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) currently trades at $18.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.13, 17.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $30.35 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $18.23 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.43, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.77 (bear) to $28.23 (bull), the price of $18.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
West Japan Railway Company reported revenue of ¥1.9T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥128B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $8.4B · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $1.72 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −17%, WJRYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.77Fair Value $15.13Bull $28.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.8% vs −4.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → 11%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (23 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.2% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.16× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "West Japan Railway Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WJRYF
Frequently asked questions
Is West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.13 versus the last price from Sep 4, 2026 of $18.23, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WJRYF?
Our model-based fair value for West Japan Railway Company is $15.13 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 4, 2026): $18.23.
What is the quality score of WJRYF?
West Japan Railway Company has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.13 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.77, optimistic scenario $28.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West Japan Railway Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.13, about −17% upside versus the last price from Sep 4, 2026 of $18.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.77, optimistic scenario $28.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
West Japan Railway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does West Japan Railway Company pay a dividend?
West Japan Railway Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, West Japan Railway Company would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.6 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WJRYF use?
Our models discount West Japan Railway Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For West Japan Railway Company that is +15.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at West Japan Railway Company grew +15.6 % a year. The price currently implies +15.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into West Japan Railway Company (+15.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.98 %: that much free cash flow West Japan Railway Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For West Japan Railway Company it is $15.13 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $18.23. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is West Japan Railway Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, WJRYF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.23, fair value $15.13, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WJRYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.13). For West Japan Railway Company the two are $3.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is West Japan Railway Company worth?
The market values West Japan Railway Company at about $8.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $18.23; our models calculate a fair value of $15.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WJRYF?
Our models span a range for West Japan Railway Company: cautious scenario $5.77, base $15.13, optimistic $28.23 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $18.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WJRYF?
West Japan Railway Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 54.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
What is the PEG ratio of WJRYF?
The PEG ratio of West Japan Railway Company is 54.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for West Japan Railway Company (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WJRYF from its 52-week high?
West Japan Railway Company trades at $18.23, about 26% below its 52-week high of $24.63 and 18% above the low of $15.46 (as of Sep 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to West Japan Railway Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is West Japan Railway Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $18.23, calculated fair value $15.13 (−17%), Quality Score 54/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WJRYF calculated?
We run West Japan Railway Company through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. West Japan Railway Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 4, 2026 and stands at $18.23. Our model-based fair value is $15.13, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with West Japan Railway Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.77 to $28.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) come from?
Earnings per share at West Japan Railway Company grew −6.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.4 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of West Japan Railway Company
How large is the market capitalisation of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The market capitalisation of West Japan Railway Company is $8.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of West Japan Railway Company is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
Earnings per share at West Japan Railway Company are $1.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The dividend yield of West Japan Railway Company is 3.6% (payout 38.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The net margin of West Japan Railway Company is 6.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of West Japan Railway Company is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of West Japan Railway Company is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
The operating margin of West Japan Railway Company is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
Revenue at West Japan Railway Company is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF)?
Earnings per share at West Japan Railway Company are growing −21.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does West Japan Railway Company (WJRYF) carry?
The net debt of West Japan Railway Company is ¥1.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 17.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026