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Woolworths Group (WOLWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Woolworths Group $9.41, price $27.80, upside -66.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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WG
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Woolworths Group
WOLWF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $9.41 · Strongly overvalued (−66.2%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 37/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.38 – $30.82 · fair‑value band $7.06 – $12.04 · the $27.80 price screens above the $9.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Woolworths Group Limited operates retail stores in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Australian Food, Australian B2B, New Zealand Food, W Living, and Other segments. The Australian Food segment procures and resells food and related products; and provides services to customers in Australia.
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Woolworths Group Limited operates retail stores in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Australian Food, Australian B2B, New Zealand Food, W Living, and Other segments. The Australian Food segment procures and resells food and related products; and provides services to customers in Australia. The Australian B2B segment engages in procurement and distribution of food and related products for resale to other businesses, as well as provision of supply chain services to business customers in Australia. The New Zealand Food segment is involved in the procurement of food, drinks, household essentials and related products; and provides services to retail customers in New Zealand. W Living segment procures general merchandise products to customers in Australia. The Other segment operates Quantium retail store. The company was formerly known as Woolworths Limited and changed its name to Woolworths Group Limited in December 2017. Woolworths Group Limited was incorporated in 1924 and is based in Bella Vista, Australia.
Stock analysis
Woolworths Group (WOLWF) currently trades at $27.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.41, 66.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $14.10 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $27.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.85, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.06 (bear) to $12.04 (bull), the price of $27.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Woolworths Group reported revenue of A$69.1B in FY2025 versus A$55.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$963M in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $34.1B · P/E ratio 55.6 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) $0.3400 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −66%, WOLWF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.06
Fair Value $9.41
Bull $12.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$11.00
$16.62
$24.54
80
Growth DCF
$11.42
$16.70
$23.84
78
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.35
$7.85
$10.51
76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$11.00
$16.62
$24.54
80
Owner Earnings
$1.13
$2.57
$4.60
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$8.79
$13.92
$20.14
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.35
$7.85
$10.51
76
5Y P/E Exit
$7.36
$11.39
$15.32
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$9.21
$13.91
$19.56
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$7.36
$9.83
$12.61
69
10Y P/E Exit
$8.61
$12.21
$16.08
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.73
$8.22
$10.48
66
PEG = 1.0
$1.31
$1.87
$2.43
57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$8.70
$13.82
$19.53
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$8.70
$12.62
$17.02
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.64
$11.52
$14.40
63
P/S Multiple
$6.99
$9.32
$11.65
58
P/B Multiple
$6.99
$9.32
$11.65
55
EV/EBITDA
$2.73
$4.40
$6.06
66
EV/Revenue
$8.21
$12.70
$17.19
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.38
$1.85
$2.77
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$11.42
$16.70
$23.84
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$8.79
$14.10
$19.74
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.38
$4.10
$5.89
75
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$6.42
$9.17
$11.93
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Profitability
64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.5% vs −8.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → −2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
WOLWF screens overvalued: fair value 66% below the price. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) Could Be 2% Below Fair Value After Supply Chain Focus
- Woolworths Group Ltd (WOLWF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Profit ...
- Woolworths (WLWHY) Moves to Buy: Rationale Behind the Upgrade
- Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) Is Down 9.9% After Cutting Margin Guidance Amid Rising Cost Pressures
Compare Woolworths Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 72 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$62.71 | C$44.76 | −29% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $60.79 | $30.42 | −50% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €31.50 | €53.98 | +71% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$101.21 | C$155.86 | +54% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$89.95 | C$96.77 | +8% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.33 | €20.64 | +35% |
| CP ALL Public Company CPALL | 43.00 THB | 58.21 THB | +35% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOB | €22.94 | €12.99 | −43% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 424.75 TRY | 247.71 TRY | −42% |
| Dino Polska S.A DNP | 35.41 PLN | 8.90 PLN | −75% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Woolworths Group (WOLWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.41 versus a price of $27.80, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WOLWF?
Our model-based fair value for Woolworths Group is $9.41 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.80.
What is the quality score of WOLWF?
Woolworths Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.41 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.06, optimistic scenario $12.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Woolworths Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.41, about −66% upside versus a price of $27.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.06, optimistic scenario $12.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Woolworths Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$70.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Woolworths Group pay a dividend?
Woolworths Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Woolworths Group would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WOLWF use?
Our models discount Woolworths Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Woolworths Group that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Woolworths Group (WOLWF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Woolworths Group grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Woolworths Group (WOLWF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Woolworths Group (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.12 %: that much free cash flow Woolworths Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Woolworths Group it is $9.41 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $27.80. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Woolworths Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, WOLWF trades above its calculated fair value: price $27.80, fair value $9.41, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WOLWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.41). For Woolworths Group the two are $18.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Woolworths Group worth?
The market values Woolworths Group at about $34.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $27.80; our models calculate a fair value of $9.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WOLWF?
Our models span a range for Woolworths Group: cautious scenario $7.06, base $9.41, optimistic $12.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $27.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WOLWF?
Woolworths Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.6 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Woolworths Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WOLWF from its 52-week high?
Woolworths Group trades at $27.80, about 10% below its 52-week high of $30.82 and 79% above the low of $15.57 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Woolworths Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, George Weston Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Woolworths Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $27.80, calculated fair value $9.41 (−66%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WOLWF calculated?
We run Woolworths Group through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Woolworths Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $27.80. Our model-based fair value is $9.41, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Woolworths Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Woolworths Group (WOLWF) come from?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Group grew −10.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate −2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Woolworths Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The market capitalisation of Woolworths Group is $34.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Woolworths Group is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Group are $0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 55.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The dividend yield of Woolworths Group is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The net margin of Woolworths Group is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Woolworths Group is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Woolworths Group is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
The operating margin of Woolworths Group is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Revenue at Woolworths Group is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Woolworths Group (WOLWF)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Group are growing −49.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Woolworths Group (WOLWF) carry?
The net debt of Woolworths Group is A$16.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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