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Xunlei Ltd (XNET) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Xunlei Ltd $9.90, price $4.71, upside +110.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ADR · ISIN US98419E1082

XL Xunlei Ltd logo Some data Sep 27, 2026

Xunlei Ltd

XNET · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $9.90 · Strongly undervalued (+110.2%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 176.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (7/10)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$10.78 $0.9900 Fair Value $9.90 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9900 – $10.78 · fair‑value band $6.52 – $14.38 · the $4.71 price screens below the $9.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Xunlei Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an internet platform for digital media content in the People's Republic of China. The company's platform is based on cloud technology that enables users to access, store, manage, and consume digital media content.

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Xunlei Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an internet platform for digital media content in the People's Republic of China. The company's platform is based on cloud technology that enables users to access, store, manage, and consume digital media content. It offers Xunlei Accelerator, which enables users to accelerate digital transmission over the internet; mobile acceleration plug-in, which provides mobile device users with benefits of download speed acceleration and download success rate improvements; and subscription services that offer premium acceleration products through Green Channel and Fast Bird products. The company also provides Mobile Xunlei, a mobile application that allows users to search, download, consume, and store digital media content; and StellarCloud, a distributed cloud computing platform. In addition, the company offers Wefun, an audio live-streaming product that offers users to join various chat rooms based on their favorite topics; and Xunlei Media Player, which supports online and offline play of digital media content, as well as simultaneous play of digital media content while it is being transmitted by Xunlei Accelerator. Further, it provides online games operated through mobile and online game businesses; advertising services; Xunlei Browser that provides video streaming, web browsing, and novel reading; cloud-based implementation for subscription services; cloud computing services; accelerated data transmission services; indexing technology, and distributed file locating system. The company was formerly known as Giganology Limited and changed its name to Xunlei Limited in January 2011. Xunlei Limited was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Xunlei Ltd Adr (XNET) currently trades at $4.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.90, implying the stock looks roughly 52.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $14.46 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $4.71 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.72, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $6.52 (bear) to $14.38 (bull), the price of $4.71 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Xunlei Ltd Adr reported revenue of $462M in FY2025 versus $239M in FY2021, a compound +17.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +445.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $309M · P/E ratio 0.3 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) $13.51 · Net margin 177% · Return on equity 113% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin 4.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 110%, XNET screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.52 Fair Value $9.90 Bull $14.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.22 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $6.90 $10.67 $17.79 79
Growth DCF $6.76 $10.50 $15.57 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.71 $8.53 $12.13 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.90 $10.67 $17.79 79
Owner Earnings $190.58 $344.20 $598.12 74
5Y Revenue Exit $4.26 $5.38 $6.78 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.71 $8.53 $12.13 75
5Y P/E Exit $211.59 $456.63 $756.33 68
10Y Revenue Exit $5.16 $6.58 $8.60 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $6.09 $8.76 $12.91 68
10Y P/E Exit $133.82 $318.39 $613.19 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $112.28 $622.87 $864.63 63
Lynch FV $173.84 $248.34 $322.84 61
PEG = 1.0 $173.84 $248.34 $322.84 57
EPV $2.62 $2.72 $2.80 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $346.75 $462.33 $577.91 63
P/S Multiple $29.92 $39.89 $49.86 58
P/B Multiple $97.10 $129.47 $161.83 55
EV/EBIT $3.74 $4.37 $5.00 66
EV/EBITDA $5.30 $6.44 $7.58 67
EV/Revenue $2.81 $3.22 $3.63 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.79 $14.46 $21.58 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.76 $10.50 $15.57 78
Rev-Margin DCF $4.26 $5.42 $7.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $66.42 $102.11 $236.10 64
ROIC Compounder $2.62 $2.72 $2.80 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $303.98 $434.26 $564.54 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.1% (2020) → 1.4% (2025)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.3% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 332 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +113.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 113.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 176.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 53.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 2.58× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Synopsys, Inc SNPS $434.94 $249.20 −43%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $87.12 $58.32 −33%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.04 $76.95 +4%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $204.41 $157.26 −23%
Okta, Inc OKTA $202.18 $142.12 −30%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xunlei Ltd Adr Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XNET

Frequently asked questions

Is Xunlei Ltd (XNET) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.90 versus a price of $4.71, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XNET?
Our model-based fair value for Xunlei Ltd Adr is $9.90 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.71.
What is the quality score of XNET?
Xunlei Ltd Adr has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.90 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.52, optimistic scenario $14.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xunlei Ltd Adr stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.90, about +110% upside versus a price of $4.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.52, optimistic scenario $14.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Xunlei Ltd Adr reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $495M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xunlei Ltd Adr would have to grow free cash flow by +30.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XNET use?
Our models discount Xunlei Ltd Adr at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xunlei Ltd Adr that is +30.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xunlei Ltd (XNET) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xunlei Ltd Adr grew +19.9 % a year. The price currently implies +30.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xunlei Ltd (XNET) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xunlei Ltd Adr (+30.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.84 %: that much free cash flow Xunlei Ltd Adr produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xunlei Ltd Adr it is $9.90 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $4.71. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xunlei Ltd Adr stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, XNET trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.71, fair value $9.90, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XNET?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.90). For Xunlei Ltd Adr the two are $5.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xunlei Ltd Adr worth?
The market values Xunlei Ltd Adr at about $309M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $4.71; our models calculate a fair value of $9.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XNET?
Our models span a range for Xunlei Ltd Adr: cautious scenario $6.52, base $9.90, optimistic $14.38 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $4.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XNET?
Xunlei Ltd Adr trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6.
What is the PEG ratio of XNET?
The PEG ratio of Xunlei Ltd Adr is 2.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xunlei Ltd Adr (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 113.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XNET from its 52-week high?
Xunlei Ltd Adr trades at $4.71, about 56% below its 52-week high of $10.78 and 2% above the low of $4.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xunlei Ltd Adr?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xunlei Ltd Adr stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $4.71, calculated fair value $9.90 (+110%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XNET calculated?
We run Xunlei Ltd Adr through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xunlei Ltd Adr currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.71. Our model-based fair value is $9.90, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xunlei Ltd Adr right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.52 to $14.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Xunlei Ltd Adr

How large is the market capitalisation of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The market capitalisation of Xunlei Ltd Adr is $309M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xunlei Ltd Adr is 0.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Earnings per share at Xunlei Ltd Adr are $13.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The net margin of Xunlei Ltd Adr is 177% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xunlei Ltd Adr is 113% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xunlei Ltd Adr is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
The operating margin of Xunlei Ltd Adr is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Revenue at Xunlei Ltd Adr is growing +53.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xunlei Ltd (XNET)?
Earnings per share at Xunlei Ltd Adr are growing +118% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Xunlei Ltd (XNET) hold?
Xunlei Ltd Adr holds more cash than debt, $79.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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