Tokyo Metro Co (XO7) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Tokyo Metro Co €6.03, price €8.15, upside -26.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 3 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
TMBroad dataSep 30, 2026
Tokyo Metro Co
XO7 · F
Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range €7.14 – €12.63 · fair‑value band €3.86 – €7.07 · the €8.15 price screens above the €6.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. engages in the operation and management of railways in Japan. It is involved in the urban design and lifestyle creation businesses.
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Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. engages in the operation and management of railways in Japan. It is involved in the urban design and lifestyle creation businesses. The company also manages shops at stations and other commercial facilities; develops and rents office buildings and hotels; and provides advertising media services, such as advertisements in stations, premises and trains, and an information and communications business that handles licensing of mobile phone communication services, as well as leases optical fiber cable, etc. The company was formerly known as Teito Rapid Transit Authority and changed its name to Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. in 2004. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Metro Co (XO7) currently trades at €8.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.03, 26.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €10.05 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the €8.15 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at €1.68, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.86 (bear) to €7.07 (bull), the price of €8.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tokyo Metro Co reported revenue of ¥422B in FY2026 versus ¥345B in FY2023, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥59.0B in FY2026, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap €4.7B · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) €0.5600 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −26%, XO7 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.86Fair Value €6.03Bull €7.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)12.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)25.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.01× · Pricier than median
P/FCF20.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)30· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)55· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokyo Metro Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XO7
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokyo Metro Co (XO7) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.03 versus a price of €8.15, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XO7?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Metro Co is €6.03 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.15.
What is the quality score of XO7?
Tokyo Metro Co has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.03 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.86, optimistic scenario €7.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Metro Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.03, about −26% upside versus a price of €8.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.86, optimistic scenario €7.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Tokyo Metro Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥425B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Tokyo Metro Co pay a dividend?
Tokyo Metro Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyo Metro Co would have to grow free cash flow by +23.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XO7 use?
Our models discount Tokyo Metro Co at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokyo Metro Co that is +23.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokyo Metro Co (XO7) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Tokyo Metro Co grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies +23.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokyo Metro Co (+23.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.01 %: that much free cash flow Tokyo Metro Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Metro Co it is €6.03 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €8.15. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Metro Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, XO7 trades above its calculated fair value: price €8.15, fair value €6.03, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XO7?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.03). For Tokyo Metro Co the two are €2.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Metro Co worth?
The market values Tokyo Metro Co at about €4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €8.15; our models calculate a fair value of €6.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XO7?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Metro Co: cautious scenario €3.86, base €6.03, optimistic €7.07 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €8.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XO7?
Tokyo Metro Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Metro Co (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XO7 from its 52-week high?
Tokyo Metro Co trades at €8.15, about 14% below its 52-week high of €9.45 and 14% above the low of €7.14 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Metro Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Metro Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €8.15, calculated fair value €6.03 (−26%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XO7 calculated?
We run Tokyo Metro Co through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Metro Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €8.15. Our model-based fair value is €6.03, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Metro Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€3.86 to €7.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tokyo Metro Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Metro Co is €4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Metro Co is 2.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Metro Co are €0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The dividend yield of Tokyo Metro Co is 2.8% (payout 40.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The net margin of Tokyo Metro Co is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Metro Co is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Metro Co is 3.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Metro Co is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Revenue at Tokyo Metro Co is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Metro Co (XO7)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Metro Co are growing −24.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tokyo Metro Co (XO7) carry?
The net debt of Tokyo Metro Co is ¥1.0T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 24.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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