XP Inc (XP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $8.0B
XP Inc
XP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $15.38 to $12.08 (−21.5%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.37 – $45.03 · fair‑value band $9.06 – $15.10 · the $16.24 price screens above the $12.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
XP Inc (XP) currently trades at $16.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.08, implying the stock looks roughly 25.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XP Inc generated revenue of $18.2B at a net margin of 28.9%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.9%. Net debt stands at $74.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.06 (bear case) to $15.10 (bull case); at $16.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -26%, XP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($37.63) versus Asset-Based ($29.66). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan …
Full company description
XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit products; pension and social security funds, and life and travel insurance products; and other investment products comprising real estate funds, and equity and debt capital markets solutions, as well as wealth management services. The company offers brokerage and issuer services to institutional and corporate clients. It also manages mutual funds focused on stocks and macro strategies distributed to retail and to institutional clients; funds and managed portfolios for high-net-worth retail clients, and proprietary treasury funds; and passive mutual funds that track market indexes, and mutual and investment funds focused on fixed income, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative strategies. In addition, the company offers securities brokerage services for institutional and retail investors; interdealer brokerage services for institutional traders; and commercial and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits, as well as develops and sells financial education courses and events online and in person to retail clients. It offers its sell products and services through its omni-channel distribution network and online portals. XP Inc. was founded in 2001 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XP Inc reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $13.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.1B in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
XP screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- XP or BX: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Wall Street Analysts See a 41.62% Upside in XP Inc.A (XP): Can the Stock Really Move This High?
- Is XP (XP) Stock Undervalued Right Now?
- iShares MSCI Brazil ETF Experiences Big Outflow
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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