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XP Inc (XPBR31) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of XP Inc BRL 38.58, price BRL 112, upside -65.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
XP Inc
XPBR31 · SAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value R$38.58 · Strongly overvalued (−65.6%)
✓Quality 60/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +27.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 76/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$48.11 – R$203.67 · fair‑value band R$28.94 – R$48.23 · the R$112.20 price screens above the R$38.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil.
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XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil. It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit products; pension and social security funds, and life and travel insurance products; and other investment products comprising real estate funds, and equity and debt capital markets solutions, as well as wealth management services. The company offers brokerage and issuer services to institutional and corporate clients. It also manages mutual funds focused on stocks and macro strategies distributed to retail and to institutional clients; funds and managed portfolios for high-net-worth retail clients, and proprietary treasury funds; and passive mutual funds that track market indexes, and mutual and investment funds focused on fixed income, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative strategies. In addition, the company offers securities brokerage services for institutional and retail investors; interdealer brokerage services for institutional traders; and commercial and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits, as well as develops and sells financial education courses and events online and in person to retail clients. It offers its sell products and services through its omni-channel distribution network and online portals. XP Inc. was founded in 2001 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
XP Inc (XPBR31) currently trades at R$112.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$38.58, 65.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: R$28.94 (bear) to R$48.23 (bull), the price of R$112.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
XP Inc reported revenue of R$18.4B in FY2025 versus R$6.8B in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was R$5.2B in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$58.2B (≈ $11.1B) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) R$9.95 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 22.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −66%, XPBR31 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$28.94
Fair Value R$38.58
Bull R$48.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$5.99 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple
R$28.94
R$38.58
R$48.23
53
NCAV (Graham)
R$22.70
R$30.41
R$45.39
52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple
R$28.94
R$38.58
R$48.23
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$22.70
R$30.41
R$45.39
52
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Profitability
41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+23.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 32%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and +7.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+13.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+9.1%
Compare XP Inc with another stock
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $188.08 | $314.07 | +67% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $900.36 | $766.86 | −15% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $97.74 | $118.07 | +21% |
| Interactive Brokers Group IBKR | $89.24 | $23.12 | −74% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $116.22 | $47.77 | −59% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$245.63 | A$80.51 | −67% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥26.29 | ¥18.35 | −30% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.21 | ¥19.35 | +12% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥18.28 | ¥4.94 | −73% |
| Nomura Holdings NMR | $9.91 | $10.19 | +3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is XP Inc (XPBR31) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$38.58 versus a price of R$112.20, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPBR31?
Our model-based fair value for XP Inc is R$38.58 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$112.20.
What is the quality score of XPBR31?
XP Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XP Inc (XPBR31)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$38.58 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$28.94, optimistic scenario R$48.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XP Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$38.58, about −66% upside versus a price of R$112.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$28.94, optimistic scenario R$48.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
XP Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$18.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does XP Inc pay a dividend?
XP Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.81% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into XP Inc (XPBR31)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, XP Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPBR31 use?
Our models discount XP Inc at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For XP Inc that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has XP Inc (XPBR31) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at XP Inc grew +27.3 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of XP Inc (XPBR31) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into XP Inc (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.85 %: that much free cash flow XP Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XP Inc it is R$38.58 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$112.20. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XP Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, XPBR31 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$112.20, fair value R$38.58, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPBR31?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$112.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$38.58). For XP Inc the two are R$73.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XP Inc worth?
The market values XP Inc at about R$58.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$112.20; our models calculate a fair value of R$38.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPBR31?
Our models span a range for XP Inc: cautious scenario R$28.94, base R$38.58, optimistic R$48.23 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$112.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is XPBR31 from its 52-week high?
XP Inc trades at R$112.20, about 4% below its 52-week high of R$116.34 and 46% above the low of R$77.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$38.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XP Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XP Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$112.20, calculated fair value R$38.58 (−66%), Quality Score 60/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPBR31 calculated?
We run XP Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$38.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. XP Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$112.20. Our model-based fair value is R$38.58, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XP Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$48.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of XP Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The market capitalisation of XP Inc is R$58.2B (≈ $11.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of XP Inc is 8.5 (as of Jul 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XP Inc is 2.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
Earnings per share at XP Inc are R$9.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The dividend yield of XP Inc is 1.8% (payout 20.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The net margin of XP Inc is 28.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XP Inc is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XP Inc is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XP Inc (XPBR31)?
The operating margin of XP Inc is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XP Inc (XPBR31)?
Revenue at XP Inc is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XP Inc (XPBR31)?
Earnings per share at XP Inc are growing +8.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does XP Inc (XPBR31) carry?
The net debt of XP Inc is R$96.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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