Xpedra Resources Limited (XPD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$17.2M
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price +21.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, trading 32% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0269). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0090 – A$0.5765 · fair‑value band A$0.0269 – A$0.0407 · the A$0.0230 price screens below the A$0.0338 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
Analysis
Xpedra Resources Limited (XPD) currently trades at A$0.0230, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0338, implying the stock looks roughly 47.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$312K. Revenue declined 43.2% year over year. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0269 (bear case) to A$0.0407 (bull case); at A$0.0230, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 156% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at 47%, XPD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0500) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Xpedra Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral resource properties in Peru and Canada. The company explores for uranium, lithium, copper, antimony-gold, silver, precious mineral, and rare earth element deposits.
Full company description
Xpedra Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral resource properties in Peru and Canada. The company explores for uranium, lithium, copper, antimony-gold, silver, precious mineral, and rare earth element deposits. The company was formerly known as Thunderbird Resources Limited and changed its name to Xpedra Resources Limited in December 2025. Xpedra Resources Limited was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2018 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xpedra Resources Limited reported revenue of A$14.2K in FY2025 versus A$324 in FY2018, a compound +71.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$12.1M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,480 IDR | 1,021 IDR | -77% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $20.54 | $8.15 | -60% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $34.60 | $29.53 | -15% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $10.71 | $19.44 | +82% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$39.78 | C$25.75 | -35% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$43.62 | C$21.85 | -50% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.25 | $16.03 | -50% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥19.06 | ¥2.84 | -85% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.30 | ¥13.23 | -38% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$35.18 | C$5.85 | -83% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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