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Xstate Resources Ltd (XST) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Xstate Resources Ltd A$0.01, price A$0.01, upside -9.2%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · AU · ISIN AU000000XST7

XR Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Xstate Resources Ltd

XST · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0109 · Overvalued (−9%)
!Quality 35/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.7 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 21 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.0600 A$0.0085 Fair Value A$0.0109 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0085 – A$0.0600 · the A$0.0120 price screens above the A$0.0109 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Xstate Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production business in the United States, Austria, and Canada.

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Xstate Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production business in the United States, Austria, and Canada. The company Diona Project comprises 23 graticular blocks covering an area of 369 square kilometers within ATP 2077 and is located approximately 15km east of the Silver Springs gas processing plant. The company was formerly known as Oriental Crystal International Ltd. Xstate Resources Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Fremantle, Australia.

Stock analysis

Xstate Resources Ltd (XST) currently trades at A$0.0120, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0109, implying the stock looks roughly 10.1% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Xstate Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$72.9K in FY2025 versus A$8.4M in FY2021, a compound −69.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$8.2M (≈ $5.7M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.4% · Operating margin −1,817% · Revenue (TTM) A$72.9K · Revenue growth (YoY) +129% · Free cash flow −A$1.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −9%, XST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 5/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−88.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−84.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−656.8% (2020) → −2,438.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Below median
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −18% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 129% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 78.82× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)21 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 74

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.34 HK$39.89 +71%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $128.09 $90.15 −30%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.64 $52.40 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $141.84 $165.02 +16%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $57.36 $33.34 −42%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $185.65 $242.64 +31%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $48.04 $52.84 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $51.06 $56.17 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $335.74 $318.28 −5%

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A$0.0109 −10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xstate Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XST

Frequently asked questions

Is Xstate Resources Ltd (XST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0109 versus a price of A$0.0120, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of XST?
Our model-based fair value for Xstate Resources Ltd is A$0.0109 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0120.
What is the quality score of XST?
Xstate Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0109 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xstate Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0109, about −9% upside versus a price of A$0.0120 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
Xstate Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$72.9K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xstate Resources Ltd it is A$0.0109 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0120. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xstate Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XST trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0120, fair value A$0.0109, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0120); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0109). For Xstate Resources Ltd the two are A$0.0011 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xstate Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Xstate Resources Ltd at about A$8.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0120; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0109 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xstate Resources Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −34.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XST from its 52-week high?
Xstate Resources Ltd trades at A$0.0120, about 79% below its 52-week high of A$0.0560 and 33% above the low of A$0.0090 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0109 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xstate Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xstate Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0120, calculated fair value A$0.0109 (−9%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XST calculated?
We run Xstate Resources Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0109, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Xstate Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0120. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0109, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xstate Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Xstate Resources Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
The market capitalisation of Xstate Resources Ltd is A$8.2M (≈ $5.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
Earnings per share at Xstate Resources Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xstate Resources Ltd is −34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xstate Resources Ltd is −12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
The operating margin of Xstate Resources Ltd is −1,817% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xstate Resources Ltd (XST)?
Revenue at Xstate Resources Ltd is growing +129% versus a year earlier (3y avg −84.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Xstate Resources Ltd (XST) generate?
The free cash flow of Xstate Resources Ltd is −A$1.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Xstate Resources Ltd (XST) hold?
Xstate Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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