Sanwa Holdings (XST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Sanwa Holdings €31.10, price €19.50, upside +59.5%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 1 of the last 22 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
SHBroad dataSep 30, 2026
Sanwa Holdings
XST · F
Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value €31.10 · Strongly undervalued (+59.5%)
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.82 – €30.68 · fair‑value band €21.89 – €40.98 · the €19.50 price screens below the €31.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Sanwa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells construction metal products for commercial and residential buildings in Japan, North America, Europe, and Asia.
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Sanwa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells construction metal products for commercial and residential buildings in Japan, North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers residential lightweight shutters, condominium doors, industrial sectional doors, window shutters, and exterior products; and garage doors, operators, and hinge doors. It also provides non-residential heavy shutters, steel doors, partitions, stainless steel products, overhead doors, automatic doors, truck/trailer doors, gate opening and closing machines, and dock levelers. In addition, the company engages in the installation, maintenance, and service activities. Sanwa Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sanwa Holdings (XST) currently trades at €19.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €31.10, implying the stock looks roughly 37.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €33.75 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the €19.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.31, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €21.89 (bear) to €40.98 (bull), the price of €19.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sanwa Holdings reported revenue of ¥661B in FY2026 versus ¥469B in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥59.8B in FY2026, compounding +27.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €4.1B · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) €1.56 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 59%, XST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €21.89Fair Value €31.10Bull €40.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.8% vs 14.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.6% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+62.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sanwa Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XST.F
Frequently asked questions
Is Sanwa Holdings (XST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €31.10 versus a price of €19.50, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XST?
Our model-based fair value for Sanwa Holdings is €31.10 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €19.50.
What is the quality score of XST?
Sanwa Holdings has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €31.10 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €21.89, optimistic scenario €40.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sanwa Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €31.10, about +59% upside versus a price of €19.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €21.89, optimistic scenario €40.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Sanwa Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥660B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Sanwa Holdings pay a dividend?
Sanwa Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sanwa Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XST use?
Our models discount Sanwa Holdings at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sanwa Holdings that is -4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sanwa Holdings (XST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sanwa Holdings grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies -4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sanwa Holdings (XST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sanwa Holdings (-4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.37 %: that much free cash flow Sanwa Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sanwa Holdings it is €31.10 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €19.50. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sanwa Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, XST trades below its calculated fair value: price €19.50, fair value €31.10, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€19.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€31.10). For Sanwa Holdings the two are €11.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sanwa Holdings worth?
The market values Sanwa Holdings at about €4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €19.50; our models calculate a fair value of €31.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XST?
Our models span a range for Sanwa Holdings: cautious scenario €21.89, base €31.10, optimistic €40.98 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €19.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XST?
Sanwa Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €31.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sanwa Holdings (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XST from its 52-week high?
Sanwa Holdings trades at €19.50, about 17% below its 52-week high of €23.63 and 13% above the low of €17.33 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €31.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sanwa Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sanwa Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €19.50, calculated fair value €31.10 (+59%), Quality Score 71/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XST calculated?
We run Sanwa Holdings through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €31.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Sanwa Holdings currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was €19.50. Our model-based fair value is €31.10, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sanwa Holdings right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€21.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (€21.89 to €40.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sanwa Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The market capitalisation of Sanwa Holdings is €4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sanwa Holdings is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Earnings per share at Sanwa Holdings are €1.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The dividend yield of Sanwa Holdings is 3.7% (payout 46.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The net margin of Sanwa Holdings is 9.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sanwa Holdings is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sanwa Holdings is 12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
The operating margin of Sanwa Holdings is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Revenue at Sanwa Holdings is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sanwa Holdings (XST)?
Earnings per share at Sanwa Holdings are growing −31.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sanwa Holdings (XST) carry?
The net debt of Sanwa Holdings is ¥16.6B (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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