Xylem Inc (XYL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xylem Inc stock $81.02, price $100, that is 19.0% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.16 – $150.84 · fair‑value band $51.68 – $106.91 · the $100.05 price screens above the $81.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Xylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide.
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It operates through Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services segments.
The company offers water, wastewater, and storm water pumps and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Leopold, Neptune Benson, Sanitare, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls, and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, and Lowara brands.
It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, critical infrastructure services, cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Ebro, Sensus, Sentec, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands.
In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as condition assessment and asset management, and pressure monitoring solutions under the Grindex, Mar Cor, and Godwin brands.
Xylem Inc. was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in July 2011. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Stock analysis
Xylem Inc (XYL) currently trades at $100.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.02, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $81.02 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $100.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.66, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $51.68 (bear) to $106.91 (bull), the price of $100.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Xylem Inc reported revenue of $9.0B in FY2025 versus $5.2B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $957M in FY2025, compounding +22.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $23.7B Large · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) $4.51 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 11.9% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −19%, XYL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$51.68Fair Value $81.02Bull$106.91
Price $100.05 · Downside -19.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $985,600, on Oct 29, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $501,437.
BuyD Christian KochDirector11,000 shares at $89.60$985,600Oct 29, 2026
SaleGeri-Michelle McShaneSVP, CAO4,269 shares at $117.46$501,437May 7, 2026
BuyJerome A PeribereDirector1,210 shares at $116.61$141,098May 4, 2026
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.1% vs 7.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Solid order momentum and backlog growth mark the main strength, while thin evidence for durable advantage and revenue conversion issues remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Cautious spending by utility customers threatens demand and delays revenue conversion in project-driven segments.
Xylem missed revenue expectations in the third quarter after project timing slipped and utility customers turned more cautious on spending. Orders rose solidly and the backlog grew, yet management lowered full-year guidance while advancing plans to reshape the portfolio through divestitures. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the healthy order momentum translate into faster revenue conversion, or will cautious spending and restructuring delays keep growth subdued longer than anticipated?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−19.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Return on assets5.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xylem Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XYL
Frequently asked questions
Is Xylem Inc (XYL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $81.02 versus a price of $100.05, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XYL?
Our model-based fair value for Xylem Inc is $81.02 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $100.05.
What is the quality score of XYL?
Xylem Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $81.02 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $51.68, optimistic scenario $106.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xylem Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $81.02, about 19% lower versus a price of $100.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $51.68, optimistic scenario $106.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Xylem Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Xylem Inc pay a dividend?
Xylem Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xylem Inc (XYL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xylem Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XYL use?
Our models discount Xylem Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xylem Inc that is +13.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xylem Inc (XYL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xylem Inc grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies +13.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xylem Inc (XYL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xylem Inc (+13.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.84 %: that much free cash flow Xylem Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xylem Inc it is $81.02 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $100.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xylem Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, XYL trades above its calculated fair value: price $100.05, fair value $81.02, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XYL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($100.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($81.02). For Xylem Inc the two are $19.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xylem Inc worth?
The market values Xylem Inc at about $23.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $100.05; our models calculate a fair value of $81.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XYL?
Our models span a range for Xylem Inc: cautious scenario $51.68, base $81.02, optimistic $106.91 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $100.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XYL?
Xylem Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $81.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 36.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.1, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of XYL?
The PEG ratio of Xylem Inc is 1.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xylem Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XYL from its 52-week high?
Xylem Inc trades at $100.05, about 33% below its 52-week high of $149.22 and 13% above the low of $88.23 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $81.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xylem Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xylem Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $100.05, calculated fair value $81.02 (−19%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XYL calculated?
We run Xylem Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $81.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Xylem Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $100.05. Our model-based fair value is $81.02, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xylem Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($51.68 to $106.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Xylem Inc (XYL) come from?
Earnings per share at Xylem Inc grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.1 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Xylem Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The market capitalisation of Xylem Inc is $23.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xylem Inc is 2.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Earnings per share at Xylem Inc are $4.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The dividend yield of Xylem Inc is 1.7% (payout 37.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The net margin of Xylem Inc is 11.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xylem Inc is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xylem Inc is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xylem Inc (XYL)?
The operating margin of Xylem Inc is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Revenue at Xylem Inc is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xylem Inc (XYL)?
Earnings per share at Xylem Inc are growing +34.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xylem Inc (XYL) carry?
The net debt of Xylem Inc is $463M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026