Yellow Cake PLC (YCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Yellow Cake PLC £9.70, price £5.41, upside +79.4%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.48 – £7.45 · fair‑value band £7.28 – £12.12 · the £5.41 price screens below the £9.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
Follow Yellow Cake in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Yellow Cake is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Yellow Cake plc operates in the uranium sector. The company purchases and holds uranium oxide concentrates, and commercial opportunities. Yellow Cake plc was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.
Stock analysis
Yellow Cake PLC (YCA) currently trades at £5.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £9.70, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £13.39 per share, and 5 of the 7 models we run sit above the £5.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £4.25, and 2 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £7.28 (bear) to £12.12 (bull), the price of £5.41 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yellow Cake PLC reported revenue of $434M in FY2026 versus −$6.0M in FY2022. Reported net income was $413M in FY2026, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 1.4B GBX · P/E ratio 3.9 · P/S ratio 3.72 · EPS (TTM) £1.38 · Net margin 95.1% · Return on equity 23.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin 79.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at 79%, YCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £7.28Fair Value £9.70Bull £12.12
Price £5.41 · Upside +79.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.7108 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+218.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.7%
’19
’20
’21
’24
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+37.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−115% → −4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Uranium · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+79.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)96.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)79.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth502.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Yellow Cake PLC (YCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £9.70 versus a price of £5.41, about +79% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YCA?
Our model-based fair value for Yellow Cake PLC is £9.70 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £5.41.
What is the quality score of YCA?
Yellow Cake PLC has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £9.70 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario £7.28, optimistic scenario £12.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yellow Cake PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £9.70, about +79% upside versus a price of £5.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £7.28, optimistic scenario £12.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Yellow Cake PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $434M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yellow Cake PLC it is £9.70 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of £5.41. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yellow Cake PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, YCA trades below its calculated fair value: price £5.41, fair value £9.70, a gap of about +79% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£5.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£9.70). For Yellow Cake PLC the two are £4.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yellow Cake PLC worth?
The market values Yellow Cake PLC at about 1.4B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is £5.41; our models calculate a fair value of £9.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YCA?
Our models span a range for Yellow Cake PLC: cautious scenario £7.28, base £9.70, optimistic £12.12 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price £5.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YCA?
Yellow Cake PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.9 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £9.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yellow Cake PLC (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 23.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YCA from its 52-week high?
Yellow Cake PLC trades at £5.41, about 25% below its 52-week high of £7.22 and 8% above the low of £5.01 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £9.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yellow Cake PLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Cameco Corporation, Centrus Energy Corp, CGN Mining Company, Uranium Royalty Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yellow Cake PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price £5.41, calculated fair value £9.70 (+79%), Quality Score 45/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YCA calculated?
We run Yellow Cake PLC through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £9.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Yellow Cake PLC currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £5.41. Our model-based fair value is £9.70, about +79% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yellow Cake PLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£7.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Yellow Cake PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
The market capitalisation of Yellow Cake PLC is 1.4B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yellow Cake PLC is 3.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Earnings per share at Yellow Cake PLC are £1.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
The net margin of Yellow Cake PLC is 95.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yellow Cake PLC is 23.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yellow Cake PLC is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
The operating margin of Yellow Cake PLC is 79.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Revenue at Yellow Cake PLC is growing +503% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yellow Cake PLC (YCA)?
Earnings per share at Yellow Cake PLC are growing +464% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Yellow Cake PLC (YCA) generate?
The free cash flow of Yellow Cake PLC is −$12.9M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Yellow Cake PLC (YCA) hold?
Yellow Cake PLC holds more cash than debt, $174M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Yellow Cake PLC in the live analysis
One click puts Yellow Cake PLC on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
